I will be writing up the slate each week for NFL this season. At the top of the page my bets will be posted, but I will also be giving you my ATS pick for all of the games each week. If I do not list it as a “wager” at the top of the page then I have not bet it. I give the ATS pick as essentially my lean if I had to pick a side. Going to pick a side for every game each week this year and see how I finish the season. Let’s have another great season!

For Week 1 I will be posting key offseason free agent/draft additions and departures for each team above the game analysis. For future weeks I will post only the key injuries for each team. Lots of statistics and analytics used so I have created a data primer page for anyone unfamiliar with these analytics. The Analytics Primer can be found here.

Week 1 Wagers
Bills -2 (-110)
Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
Giants +6 (-110)
Chargers -3 (-120)
49ers -1/Chiefs PK Teaser (-110)

Bills @ Rams +2.5, 52.5
Ravens @ Jets +7, 44.5
Eagles @ Lions +4, 49
49ers @ Bears +7, 41.5
Colts @ Texans +8, 45.5 
Steelers @ Bengals -6.5, 44.5
Saints @ Falcons +5.5, 42.5
Browns @ Panthers -2.5, 41.5
Patriots @ Dolphins -3, 47
Jaguars @ Commanders -3, 44
Giants @ Titans -5.5, 43.5
Chiefs @ Cardinals +4.5, 53.5
Raiders @ Chargers -3.5, 52.5
Packers @ Vikings +1.5, 48
Buccaneers @ Cowboys +1.5, 50.5 
Broncos @ Seahawks +6.5, 42

BILLS @ RAMS (+2), O/U 51.5

Bills Key Additions: DE Von Miller, RT David Quessenberry, LG Rodger Saffold, DE Shaq Lawson, WR Jamison Crowder

Bills Key Losses: C Jon Feliciano, CB Levi Wallace, DT Harrison Phillips, DE Jerry Hughes

Rams Key Additions: ILB Bobby Wagner, WR Allen Robinson, CB Troy Hill

Rams Key Losses: DE Von Miller, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, WR Robert Woods, WR Odell Beckham-Jr, CB Darious Williams, LT Andrew Whitworth, RG Austin Corbett

Analysis

  • Bills added Von Miller in FA to a Defense thar ranked 2nd in NFL in pressure rate (31.1%) in 2021.
  • Unlike other many other teams with high pressure rates, Bills don’t need to blitz to get pressure as they only rushed-4 at the 9th highest rate in the league (74%). They also used Cover-2 at the 5th highest rate (22.7%).
  • Stafford was #1 QB vs the blitzed but he is highly sensitive to pressure in general. He ranked 28th in NFL in DVOA efficiency drop-off when pressured. Basically when he is clean he is outstanding but when he is pressured he has one of the largest drop-offs in the NFL.
  • Pressure may be an issue for the Rams in this game as they lost stud LT Whitworth and solid RG Austin Corbett in the offseason.
  • Another thing going for the Bills is the fact that they ranked 2nd best in DVOA allowed to slot WR in 2021. They should be able to contain Cooper Kupp considering they return all their key pieces and Tre White should be back from injury.
  • On the flip side of the ball we have a Rams defense that needs to get pressure on the QB to be successful. This will be more difficult this year as the Bills added Rodger Saffold (31st grade out of 82 Guards last year) to play LG and they signed Tackle David Quessenberry(18th out of 83 tackles). The Rams ranked as the 3rd best defense by DVOA when able to get pressure on the QB, but they drop to 23rd when they were unable to get pressure. I think it is reasonable to assume that their pressure ranking from 2021 (3rd) drops further this year considering they lost DT Joseph-Day and ED Von Miller.
  • Even if they maintain their pressure rate (29%) in this matchup, they are going up against Josh Allen who is elite at avoiding pressure and performing well under pressure.
  • Allen finished posted the 2nd highest DVOA under pressure in 2021 and he is an elite runner; (0.94 EPA/att) on scrambles last season.
  • There is a reason this number has only moved one way since open and I will be backing the Bills at anything less than a FG.

Bet: Bills -2

Ravens @ Jets (+6, O/U 45)

Ravens Key Additions: S Marcus Williams, CB Kyle Fuller, S Kyle Hamilton, DT Michael Pierce, RT Morgan Moses, C Tyler Linderbaum, OLB David Ojabo

Ravens Key Losses: CB Anthony Averett, OLB Justin Houston, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Marquise Brown, S Deshon Elliot, DE Derek Wolfe

Jets Key Additions: LG Laken Tomlinson, CB DJ Reed, S Jordan Whitehead, LB Kwon Alexander, TE Tyler Conklin, TE CJ Uzomah, CB Sauce Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson, DE Jermaine Johnson, RB Breece Hall

Jets Key Losses: S Marcus Maye, DT Foley Fatukasi, RT Morgan Moses, WR Jamison Crowder

Analysis

  • Two most injured teams in the NFL in 2021.
  • Fully healthy Ravens offense going against a Jets defense that ranked 25th in explosive run rate allowed in 2021.
  • Ravens lack WR weapons but that may not matter if they are able to abuse the Jets front-7 in the run game.
  • Jets also ranked 31st against TEs in 2021 and made no significant upgrades to their LB/safety corps in offseason. Watch out for Mark Andrews to get high-volume of targets.
  • This game is going to likely come down to whether or not Zach Wilson can show significant improvement year-over-year but I find it hard to believe he will do that against a loaded Ravens secondary that is now finally healthy.
  • Another thing going against the Jets is the likely season-ending injury to T Mekhi Becton. This is obviously an issue considering how awful Zach Wilson’s splits were when pressured in 2021. Wilson was dead-last in YPA when under pressure in 2021, and 2nd to last in DVOA when under pressure.
  • Ravens DL finished #1 in adjusted line yards in 2021 and added mammoth DT Michael Pierce to their unit. Jets OL was #22 in Adjusted line yards and will likely be without T Becton. With No Zach Wilson I think that the Ravens edge defenders should be able to focus on plugging the run game as Joe Flacco is completely immobile and won’t be a scramble/rollout threat.
  • Lamar is 27-4 SU (87%) against sub .500 teams throughout his career
  • Harbaugh is 10-4 ATS (71%) in Week 1
  • Think this line is about right so likely avoiding this game all together.
  • *** Zach Wilson is likely out for this game but Flacco isn’t a massive downgrade by any means.

ATS Pick: Ravens -6

Eagles @ Lions (+4, 46.5)

Eagles Additions: LB Kyzir White, WR AJ Brown, OLB Haason Reddick, S Jaquiski Tartt, CB James Bradberry, DT Jordan Davis, LB Nakobe Dean

Eagles Losses: RG Brandon Brooks, ILB Alex Singleton, OLB Genard Avery, CB Steven Nelson, S Rodney Mcleod

Lions Additions: WR DJ Chark, S Deshon Elliot, DE Aidan Hutchison, WR Jameson Williams

Lions Losses: S Dean Marlowe, LB Trey Flowers, WR Tyrell Williams

Analysis

  • Hard to stop this Eagles team unless you have the lineman to matchup with them in the trenches. The Eagles OL ranked 4th in Adjusted line yards in 2021, while the Lions DL finished 30th in ALY. Eagles ran for 5.1 YPC and had an 85% success rate on runs out of 12 personnel in the Week 8 matchup vs the Lions last year. Lions upgraded on edge with Hutchison but return most of the same interior DL and LBs so I don’t expect their run defense to immediately improve drastically.
  • Another issue for the Lions is their inability to cover TEs as they ranked 25th in explosive pass rate and 29th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021. Obviously an issue against an Eagles team that was 8th in 12 personnel usage and that loves to target Dallas Goedert. Goedert was the #1 TE in the NFL by DVOA in 2021.
  • On flip side of the ball I find it hard to see how the Lions have success running the ball given how much depth/talent there is on this Eagles DL. Williams and Swift were both bottom 20th percentile in rushing yards over expectation and the Lions ranked 30th in EPA/att on rushes within the first 3 quarters of the game. They were missing C Frank Ragnow for much of the 2021 season but his return doesn’t move the needle enough for me to see them having much success here.
  • Eagles were bad at covering TEs and slot WRs in 2021 but added LB Khyzir White and Nakobe Dean in offseason. White was 10th in yards allowed per coverage snap amongst LBs last season. I don’t expect this Lions offense to be explosive enough to consistently move the ball here as they will still be without rookie WR Jameson Williams in Week 1. Eagles D ranked #1 in the NFL in explosive pass rate allowed so I truly don’t see where the efficiency comes from for this Lions offense.
  • This is a strong lean towards the Eagles for now and would become a play at -3 (-120) or less.

ATS Pick: Eagles -4

Patriots @ Dolphins (-2.5, 45)

Patriots Additions: WR Devante Parker, S Jabrill Peppers, G/C Cole Strange, WR Tyquan Thornton, RB Pierre Strong

Patriots Losses: C Ted Karras, CB JC Jackson, LB D’onta Hightower, OLB Kyle Van Noy, DE Chase Winovich, RB James White, RG Shaq Mason

Dolphins Additions: WR Tyreek Hill, WR Cedrick Wilson, LT Terron Armstead, C Conor Williams, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Chase Edmonds, QB Teddy Bridgewater

Dolphins Losses: S Jason Mccourty, WR Jakeem Grant, WR Will Fuller, WR Devante Parker

Analysis

  • Dolphins averaged less than 5 yards per play vs the Pats last season but upgraded their offense massively in the offseason.
  • Scheme upgrade with Mcdaniel as HC.
  • Skill position upgrades: Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds, Cedrick Wilson.
  • OL upgrades: LT Terron Armstead and G Conor Williams
  • Dolphins now have 3 receivers who ranked top-35 in separation last year after ranking dead-last in receiver separation since 2020.
  • Patriots played man-coverage at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL last year. Lost #1 CB JC Jackson and LBs Kyle Van Noy/Donta Hightower. Van Noy was the highest graded coverage LB in the NFL last year according to PFF.
  • MIA offense has massively improved in offseason while the NE defense has deteriorated.
  • NE offense lost 2 starting guards in the offseason and will be starting rookie Cole Strange at Center.
  • MIA ranked 1st in the NFL in pressure rate and added DE Melvin Ingram in offseason.
  • MIA CBs should be comfortable matching up with ex-teammate Devante Parker who is now on the Patriots.
  • NE has an edge if they chose to utilize more 12-personnel as MIA ranked 30th in DVOA allowed to opposing TEs in 2021 but it is hard to rely on a NE offense being competent when you factor in the fact that they only used 12-personnel on 13.7% of their plays in 2021 besides having one of the most expensive tight-end rooms in the NFL. Also hard to rely on the NE offense considering it is being co-managed by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia.
  • Plenty of reports coming out of NE camp/pre-season that the offense is a disaster currently.
  • I will be betting MIA -2.5 given the significant roster improvement in the offseason by the Dolphins and the deterioration of this Patriots defense.

WAGER: MIA -2.5

Jaguars @ Commanders (-4, 43.5)

Jaguars Additions: WR Christian Kirk, RG Brandon Scherff, WR Zay Zones, TE Evan Engram, CB Darious Williams, DT Foley Fatukasi, LB Foye Oluokon, DE Travon Walker, LB Devin Lloyd

Jaguars Losses: LG Andrew Norwell, G Brandon Linder, WR DJ Chark, ILB Myles Jack, RG AJ Cann,

Commanders Additions: QB Carson Wentz, LG Andrew Norwell, RG Trai Turner, WR Jahan Dotson, DT Phidarian Mathis, RB Brian Robinson

Commanders Losses: RG Brandon Scherff, DT Matt Ioaniddis, S Landon Collins, T Ereck Flowers, WR Adam Humphries, TE Ricky Seals-Jones

Analysis

  • Commanders may have an edge against this Jags secondary of Griffin, Campbell, and Darious Williams. Williams and Campbell both finished outside the top-70 in coverage grade in 2021. WAS trio of Mclaurin, Dotson, and Samuel has potential and I truly believe that Mclaurin is a top-5 WR in the NFL. Mclaurin finally has a QB that can push the ball downfield in Wentz (7th in EPA/ATT, and 9th in success rate on deep throws last year). WAS ranked 23rd in early down pass rate and 25th in overall pass rate so hard to bank on them exploiting this advantage here.
  • Jags should also be looking to come out and throw against this WAS defense that added no one meaningful to their weak secondary year-over-year. The strength of this WAS team is their front-7 and they now return DE Chase young from a torn-ACL. Young will only bolster their run defense as he ranked #1 in the entire NFL in Football Outsiders rushing yards allowed metric last year. With all the investment in skill position and Doug Pederson’s history I would expect the Jaguars to up their pass rates and aim to attack the WAS secondary.
  • Jacksonville ranked 3rd in pace in 2021 and the last time we saw Doug Pederson coaching the Eagles ranked 3rd in 2020. I think it is very likely that Jacksonville maintains their high-tempo. I expect tempo and a higher pass-rate from this JAX team and that leads me to lean over given that
  • Have no lean on a side here, but I expect tempo and a higher pass-rate from this JAX team and that leads me to lean over given that I have little respect for either of these secondaries and I think both QBs are being slightly under-rated entering the 2022 season.
  • Philadelphia never finished lower than fourth in the league in Aggressiveness Index during Pederson’s tenure.

Lean: Over 43.5
ATS Pick: JAX (+3.5)

Colts @ Texans (+8, 44)

Colts Additions: QB Matt Ryan, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB Brandon Facyson, DE Yanick Ngakoue, S Rodney Mcleod, RB Philip Lindsay, WR Alec Pierce, TE Jelani Woods, OL Bernard Raimann

Colts Losses: CB Khairi Willis, CB Xavier Rhodes, CB Rock Ya-Sin, G Mark Glowinski, QB Carson Wentz, T Eric Fisher, WR Eric Pascal, WR TY Hilton, TE Jack Doyle,

Texans Additions: DE Jerry Hughes, CB Steven Nelson, CB Fabian Moreau, DE Ogbo Okoronkwo, G AJ Cann, CB Derek Stingley, OL Kenyon Green, S Jalen Pitre, WR John Metchie, RB Dameon Pearce

Texans Losses: S Justin Reid, LB Derek Wilson, CB Terrance Mitchell, RB Phillip Lindsay, RB David Johnson, OL Marcus Cannon, LB Whitney Mercilus, QB Tyrod Taylor

Analysis

  • I have 0 expectations for the Texans heading into this season as it is fairly obvious that they are once again tanking.
  • This is a terrible matchup for the run-happy Texans as the Colts D was 3rd in Rush DVOA in 2021. The Colts kept all their key contributors in their front-7 and actually added DE Yannick Ngakou from the Raiders.
  • HOU put up 3 total points in 2 games vs the Colts last year and made no major additions to their offensive unit outside of two rookies RB Dameon Pierce and G Kenyon Green. Hearing HC Lovie Smith talk about the importance of running the ball all offseason also doesn’t inspire much confidence in the unit.
  • The IND secondary is susceptible and the way you really beat this defense but there is no reason to believe Davis Mills will have enough success to actually win this game.
  • The HOU defense should be awful once again and IND should have no problem putting up points considering they upgraded at QB with the Matt Ryan trade.
  • I typically avoid large spreads on road favorites in week 1 as there is always so much variance in Week 1 and Frank Reich and this Colts team have been suspect early in seasons over the past few years. Staying away from this one.

ATS Pick: HOU +8

Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

Steelers Key Additions: QB Mitch Trubisky, RG James Daniels C Mason Cole, CB Levi Wallace, OLD Genard Avery, DT Larry Ogunjobi, ILB Myles Jack, WR George Pickens, QB Kenny Pickett, DT Demarvin Leal

Steelers Key Losses: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Juju-Smith Schuster, LB Joe Schobert, RG Trai Turner, TE Eric Ebron

Bengals Key Additions: RT La’el Collins, C Ted Carras, RG Alex Cappa, TE Hayden Hurst, S Daxton Hill

Bengals Key Losses: TE CJ Uzomah, CB Trae Waynes, DT Larry Ogunjobi

Analysis

  • Bengals new and improved OL gets an early test against a PIT D that finished 2nd in adjusted sack rate in 2021. Pit DL likely a little overrated heading into 2022 as they were just 19th in pressure rate in 2021 and they didn’t really upgrade the unit year-over-year. Sack rate historically tends to regress towards the actual pressure rate. Reagardless. TJ Watt and Heyward will still have to be accounted for and the Bengals were able to do this in 2021 as they only allowed 2 sacks total vs PIT last year. Bengals upgraded their OL in offseason so should be able to protect Burrow moderately well here.
  • Steelers limited Burrow’s counting stats in both matchups last year but allowed Mixon to torch them on the ground.
  • The Steelers managed to put up just 10 points in each game last season. Trubisky is definitely an improvement over last year’s version of Roethlisberger but it remains to be seen how much of an improvement. The OL did not got meaningfully better in the offseason but I would expect this team to put up more than 10 points vs a Bengals defense that is likely overrated.

ATS Pick: Steelers +6.5

Browns @ Panthers (-1.5, 41.5)

Browns Additions: QB Deshaun Watson, QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Amari Cooper, WR Jakeem Grant, DE Chase Winovich, CB Martin Emerson, WR David Bell

Browns Losses: QB Baker Mayfield, C JC Tretter, WR Jarvis Landry, TE Austin Hooper, DT Malik Jackson, CB Troy Hill,

Panthers Additions: QB Baker Mayfield, RG Austin Corbett, C Bradley Bozeman, DT Matt Ioaniddis, LB Cory Littleton, S Xavier Woods, T Ikem Ekwonu

Panthers Losses: CB Stephon Gilmore, OLB Haason Reddick, DT Daquan Jones, DE Morgan Fox, C Matt Paradis

Analysis

  • Browns struggled vs the run last year finishing 23rd in DVOA and 28th in Rush EPA allowed.
  • Panthers may have an edge here with Mccaffrey but in general when handicapping games  it’s more important to focus on pass defenses/pass offenses than the run game.
  • Don’t see any reason to believe that Baker Mayfield will have massive success here inWeek 1 against a coaching staff/roster that is familiar with all of his tendencies/weaknesses. Cleveland is absolutely loaded in the secondary and pass-rush and I expect the young Carolina OL to struggle with Myles Garrett and Clowney on the edge.
  • Baker is highly dependent on play-action and sees massive efficiency increases when using PA vs no PA. Unfortunately for him he now has Ben Mcadoo as OC. During his 2015-2017 NYG HC tenure the Giants ranked 23rd, 29th, and 21st in play-action usage.
  • Baker was traded after OTAs (July 6th) and will have had about 2 months to learn an entirely new offensive system. Doesn’t help that CAR had him splitting snaps with Sam Darnold for a month as well.
  • If Baker struggles here it will enable CLE to prioritize the run and load up the box. This is a problem for CAR as they had the largest gap in the league in DVOA between runs against heavy boxes of eight or more and lighter boxes.

Light Box: (-8.0% DVOA, 4.1 yards per carry)

Heavy Box: (-39.3% DVOA, 3.0 yards per carry)

  • Browns have been preparing for this game assuming Brissett would be the starter for months given their anticipation of some sort of Watson suspension.
  • Browns ranked 1st in the NFL in explosive run rate last year, Panthers D was 27th in explosive run rate allowed and they lost OLB Haason Reddick in FA.
  • Browns OL returns virtually all the key pieces to an OL that ranked 1st in adjusted line yards.
  • I trust Stefanski to scheme up some easy targets for Brissett and utilize his elite RB trio to generate some efficiency against this CAR D.
  • Ultimately I am extremely high on Browns this year due to terrific combination of veteran talent, coaching, and productive young guys with potential and am not afraid to back them despite no Watson here. Still just a lean for now.

ATS Pick: Browns (+1.5)

Saints @ Falcons (+5.5, 42)

Saints Additions: S Tyrann Matthieu, S Marcus Maye, WR Jarvis Landry, QB Andy Dalton, WR Chris Olave, T Trevor Penning, CB Alontae Taylor

Saints Losses: S Marcus Williams, S Malcolm Jenkins, LB Kwon Alexander, LT Terron Armstead,

Falcons Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Bryan Edwards, WR Damiere Byrd, OLB Lorenzo Carter, ILB Rashaan Evans, CB Casey Heyward, S Dean Marlowe, WR Drake London, QB Desmond Ridder, RB Tyler Allgeier, LB Troy Andersen, DE Arnold Ebiketie

Falcons Losses: QB Matt Ryan, WR Russell Gage, WR Calvin Ridley (suspension), DE Dante Fowler, S Duron Harmon, LB Foye Oluokon

Analysis

  • The Falcons better shift offensive philosophies coming into 2022, because they will not beat this Saints team by running the ball 56% of the time on first down. This Saints front-7 dominated the Falcons last year and little has changed in the trenches for either team. In the week 9 matchup, the Falcons carried the ball 25 times for 34 yard (1.4 YPC), and had a 16% success rate on runs. They won the game by 2 due to a Matt Ryan masterclass.
  • Matt Ryan: 23-30 (76%), 343 passing yards, 11.4 YPA, 2 TD: 0 INT, 135.8 passer rating.
  • In week 18 they lost 30-20 and but learned their lesson only attempting to run 12 times. The Falcons no longer have Matt Ryan to save them in this matchup.
  • I am actually higher on Mariota than most people but this will be his first NFL in start in over 3 years and he isn’t necessarily set up for success given the talent around him.
  • Kyle Pitts is a stud, but besides him the Falcons will be rolling out a rookie as their #1 WR in Drake London. Behind London they have Bryan Edwards and Olamide Zaccheaus. Out of 115 receivers, Edwards and Zaccheus graded out as 85th and 86th respectively.
  • I have no reason to believe the Falcons are suddenly able to run the ball given the fact that they made no major OL/RB upgrades and the Saints return all their key contributors in the front-7.
  • Saints offense struggled after losing Winston last year but now get him back plus 2 terriffic upgrades at WR in Rookie Chris Olave and WR Jarvis Landry.
  • The way to beat Winston is to get pressure on him. Winston’s completion % dropped from 78.6% to 59.1% when under pressure in 2021. Unfortunately for the Falcons they ranked dead-last in pressure rate last year and lost their only real plus edge-defender in DE Dante Fowler in the offseason.
  • With no clear matchup edges for the Falcons I have to pick the Saints here in Week 1.

ATS Pick: NO -5.5

49ers @ Bears (+7, 42)

49ers Additions: CB Charvarius Ward, WR Ray-ray Mccloud, DE Drake Jackson, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, WR Danny Gray

49ers Losses: C Alex Mack, DE DJ Jones, CB K’waun Williams, S Jaquiski Tartt, LG Laken Tomlinson, CB Josh Norman

Bears Additions: C Lucas Patrick, CB Tavon Young, S Dane Cruikshank, CB Kyler Gordon, S Jaquan Brisker, WR Velus Jones

Bears Losses: OLB Khalil Mack, WR Allen Robinson, G James Daniels, DE Akiem Hicks, LB Alec Ogletree, DT Eddie Goldman, CB Tashuan Gipson

Analysis

  • I’m excited to see what Trey Lance can do in this offense.
  • Last time Shanahan had a mobile QB was rookie RGIII on the Redskins in 2012. Griffin’s ranks that year:1st in YPA, 1st in YPC for all runners,3rd in EPA, 3rd in QBR, 5th in CPOE.
  • 49ers dominated this Bears team in week 8 last year averaging a ridiculous 8.6 yards per play. Eli Mitchell averaged 7.6 YPC, while Jimmy threw for 322 passing yards averaging 11.5 YPA. Deebo Samuel torched the secondary going for 171 receiving yards on just 6 receptions. (All this without TE George Kittle who was out with injury)
  • 49ers offense is heavily predicated on pre-snap motion and play-action and I don’t really see this extremely young bears defense having much success against this sophisticated offense here unless Trey Lance has multiple turnovers.
  • 49ers should be able to run the ball efficiency against a Bears-D that lost Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, and Eddie Goldman in the offseason.
  • If SF runs efficiently should keep Lance in manageable situations and mitigate any turnover risk.
  • On offense we have to give the Bears their credit as it wasn’t all bad in Week 8. The Bears were up 16-15 heading into the 4th quarter before collapsing late. Fields had carried the ball 8 times for 71 yards (8.8 ypc) through 3 quarters and had them leading late. He had a passer rating of 109.2 and had completed 16/21 (76%) of his passes. His passer rating dropped down to 28.5 in the 4th as he threw an interception and took 2 sacks.
  • What the Bears can take away from this game is the fact that Justin Fields was highly successful passing the ball out of heavier sets.
  • Fields splits 12 vs 11 personnel:

12: 63% completion, 8.3 YPA, 89.6 QBR, 50% success rate

11: 76% completion, 5.5 YPA,  56.9 QBR,  31% success rate

  • Fields lead the NFL in passer rating on rollouts last year (138.5), but Nagy and co. only let him rollout 19 times total last season. If new HC Luke Getsy ups these 2 things I think we see more efficiency from Fields but it is hard to anticipate/expect that entering a Week 1 matchup vs this 49ers front-7.
  • Given the complete talent disparity in this matchup I believe the 49ers are an extremely solid teaser leg at PK or -1.

Tease: 49ers -1

Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5, 51.5)

Raiders Additions: WR Davante Adams, OLB Chandler Jones, CB Anthony Averett, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Duron Harmon, ILB Kenny Young, LB Jayon Brown, DE Bilal Nichols, OL Dylan Parham, RB Zamir White

Raiders Losses: G Richie Incognito, LB KJ Wright, WR Bryan Edwards, WR Zay Jones, CB Casey Heyward, CB Brandon Facyson, DE Yannick Ngakou, LB Corry Littleton

Chargers Additions: CB JC Jackson, OLB Khalil Mack, OLB Kyle Van Noy, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, DT Austin Johnson, ILB Troy Reeder, CB Bryce Callahan, RG Zion Johnson, RB Isaiah Spiller

Chargers Losses: LB Kyzir White, DT Linval Joseph, LB Uchenna Nwosu, T Bryan Bulaga, TE Jared Cook

Analysis

  • Rematch of last year’s Week 18 thriller that saw the Raiders eliminate the Chargers from the playoffs with an OT buzzer beating FG.
  • Chargers have massively upgraded their talent/ceiling on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason. Added Khalil Mack, JC Jackson, Kyle Van Noy, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Bryce Callahan. Should be much improved defense in 2022.
  • Raiders OL has deteriorated/not improved but they did add the NFL’s best WR in Davante Adams. Raiders added CBs Rock Ya-sin and Anthony Averett on defense and LB Jayon Brown and Chandler Jones.
  • Raiders defense allowed 30 PPG through 2 games vs the Chargers last year.
  • Justin Herbert threw for 3 touchdowns and 22 yards with a 104.9 passer rating in the week 4 matchup. The Raiders also got torched on the ground in this game, allowing Ekeler to run for 7.8 YPC and 117 yards.
  • The Week 18 matchup was much better in terms of efficiency as they only allowed 4.0 YPC to Ekeler and an 80.0 passer rating to Herbert. Herbert still threw for 364 yards against them but was forced into tons of checkdowns and quick reads as he averaged a meager 5.9 YPA on 34/64 passes (53%). 5.9 YPA would have ranked dead-last in the NFL last year.
  • Chargers only lost because they were horrible on 3rd down going 4/18 throughout the game
  • Carr was unable to reach 200 yards in either game last year but Raiders pulled out the win in Week18 due to Jacobs(5.1YPC), Richard(12 YPC), and Mariota (5.8 YPC)running the ball effectively.
  • I expect the Chargers to be able to contain this Raiders defense given their massive advantage in the front-7. Yes, they get bullied in week 18 but now you bring in Van Noy Mack, and Joseph-Day and I expect things to go differently. S Derwin James on Darren Waller is a strong matchup for LAC. As long as JC Jackson can limit Adams ability to win on quick routes I expect the Chargers defense to be able to generate consistent pressure on Carr.
  • Raiders OL finished 27th in pass block efficiency and 20th in pressure rate allowed. LT Kolton Miller as the 5th highest graded pass-blocking tackle in 2021, but besides him and C Andre James everyone else on the line graded in the bottom 20th percentile in pass-block grade.
  • RT Alex Leatherwood finished 78th out of 80 qualified tackles in pass-block grade. He is going to be asked to consistently block one of Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack. I’m gonna have to put my money on the Chargers pass-rush winning this matchup.
  • Raiders OL ranked 31st in run-block win rate in 2021, so not expecting this team to repeat their Week 18 success.
  • LV will be installing an entirely new coaching staff and scheme and it may take this offense some time to gel in Mcdaniel’s new scheme.
  • Ultimately, the Raiders were one of the luckiest teams in NFL history in 2021 and I am excited to fade them often this season and there is no better time to fade them in a matchup against probably the most talented roster in the NFL. I have tons of respect for Staley and his coaching staff and trust that they will be well prepared to exploit their matchup edges on both sides of the ball.

Bet: LAC -3.5

Giants @ Titans (-5.5, 44)

Giants Additions: G Mark Glowinski, C Jon Feliciano, C Max Garcia, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, QB Tyrod Taylor, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, T Evan Neal, WR Wandale Robinson, CB Cordale Flott, TE Daniel Bellinger, HC Brian Daboll

Giants Losses: CB James Bradberry, S Logan Ryan, OLB Lorenzo Carter, TE Evan Engram, DT Austin Johnson, G Will Hernandez, T Nate Solder, TE Kyle Rudolph

Titans Additions: WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper, WR Treylon Burks, CB Roger Mccreary, T Nick Petit-Freire, QB Malik Willis, RB Hasan Haskins

Titans Losses: WR AJ Brown, WR Julio Jones, CB Janoris Jenkins, LG Rodger Saffold, RB D’onta Foreman, LB Jayon Brown, LB Rashaan Evans, T David Quessenberry

Analysis

  • Giants secondary is a bottom-5 unit in the NFL but this is the ideal week 1 matchup for them as the Titans receiver room is potentially the worst in the NFL. Robert Woods is their #1 WR and he is coming off a torn ACL. Even prior to the ACL injury here is Woods success rate vs coverages in 2021.

60.2% vs Man (20th percentile)

77.1% vs Zone (37th percentile)

57.4% vs Press (21st percentile)

  • Woods wasn’t winning on routes and getting open often last year. Couple that with his 10% drop rate and it is easy to see why many are low on him entering a less receiver-friendly situation in TEN. If he was unable to generate success in LAR playing next to Cooper Kupp and multiple vertical threats in Van Jefferson/Desean Jackson, I find it hard to believe he will be successful in TEN where defenses will be consistently keying on him as the #1 WR.
  • First round rookie Treylon Burks posted just a 57.5% success rate vs man coverage last year and has little to no experience running routes out of either the flanker or x-spots of the offense.
  • Nick-Westbrook Ikhine was league-average finishing 63rd out of 115 receivers in PFF’s receiving grade.
  • Given the lack of reliable receivers, NYG should be able to key on King Henry and stack the box to contain explosive runs. Henry’s explosive run rate has decreased each year and now he is coming off of the foot injury. Tennessee ranked below average in every rush efficiency metric in the 8 weeks Henry was healthy last year (25th in EPA/att, 31st in success rate, and 20th in YPC. They made no OL upgrades and lost LG Rodger Saffold and RT David Quessenberry. This is an issue as they finished 30th in pass-block efficiency and 26th in adjusted sack rate in 2021.
  • Giants front-7 should be much improved with the addition of Rooke Thibodeaux and the return to health of MLB Blake Martinez. They were 24th in explosive run rank allowed and 31st in adjusted line yards so they will need to immediate contribution from these two to survive against Henry in week 1.
  • Another thing going for the giants is the arrival of DC Wink Martindale. Martindale’s Ravens teams have ranked top-12 in Run DVOA in 3 of the 4 years that Martindale was there including ranking 4th in the NFL last year, despite being the 2nd most injured defense in the NFL. If we expand that out to 2012, when Martindale became the Ravens linebackers coach, they have ranked as a top-12 run defense in all but 2 years (2012, 2019).
  • Offensively the Giants should use much more 11 and 10 personnel under Daboll. The Bills offense used 11 personnel (3 WR) at the 6th highest rate last year, using it on 71% of their plays. They also used 10 personnel (4 WR) at the 3rd highest rate in 2021. They used 12 personnel on just 100 snaps (9%), which ranked 2nd fewest in the NFL.
  • Titans have performed well vs 11 personnel but struggled against 4 WR sets in 2021. Titans have a stud safety duo and an elite CB in Kristian Fulton, but after Fulton their CB depth is extremely young with the main guys all being rookies or 2nd year players. The Giants may be able to have some success through the air here.
  • I don’t expect Giants to dominate by any means, but I believe they will at least be competitive enough to keep this within a touchdown so I am backing them at +6.5.

Bet: NYG (+6.5)

Chiefs @ Cardinals (+3.5, 53)

Chiefs Additions: WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, RB Ronald Jones, S Justin Reid, CB Trent Mcduffie, DE George Karlaftis, WR Sky Moore, LB Leo Chenal, RB Isiah Pacheco

Chiefs Losses: WR Tyreek Hill, RB Darrel Williams, T Mike Remmers, DT Jarran Reed, S Tyrann Matthieu, CB Charvarius Ward, CB Mike Hughes, LB Anthony Hitchens, DE Alex Okafor, S Daniel Sorensen

Cardinals Additions: WR Marquise Brown, RB Darrel Williams, G Will Hernandez, DT Kingsley Keke, TE Trey Mcbride, DE Cameron Thomas, DE Myjai Sanders

Cardinals Losses: OLB Chandler Jones, DT Jordan Phillips, ILB Jordan Hicks, DT Corey Peters, CB Robert Alford, WR Christian Kirk, RB Chase Edmonds, C Max Garcia

Analysis

  • Chiefs obviously lost Tyreek but added tons of depth with MVS, Juju, and Sky Moore. Not worried about this Chiefs offense at all in 2022.
  • Expect Chiefs offense to perform well against this Cardinals defense as they finished 29th in pressure rate last year despite blitzing at a top-5 rate. They lost Chandler Jones but return JJ Watt on the edge. JJ is still a plus-defender but not the same player he was in his prime. KC ranked 4th in adjusted sack rate and return all 5 starting OL. ARI added DE Myjai Sanders through the draft but I still wouldn’t expect them to generate consistent pressure against Mahomes.
  • If ARI is unable to get pressure it is unlikely that this CB trio of Antonio Hamilton, Byron Murphy, and Marco Wilson survives against this KC passing attack. All 3 graded below the 50th percentile of CBs last year. Marco Wilson was 109th of 116 qualified corners in coverage grade.
  • The ARI WR room is not extremely impressive due to the absence of Hopkins who is suspended for 8 weeks to start the season. Hollywood Brown is a deep threat, but outside of him they have screen merchant Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz/AJ Green who both fail to create separation on routes at this stage of their career. Despite the lack of Hopkins I still believe the Cardinals can have success here as the KC secondary is a question mark after losing Tyrann Matthieu and Charvarius ward in the offseason. Even with these two they finished just 23rd in passing DVOA allowed in 2021. The secondary now consists of Rashad Fenton, L’jarius Snead, Justin Reid, Juan Thornhill, and rookie Trent Mcduffie
  • Fenton was a top-10 coverage corner in 2021 and Thornhill was solid, but Snead is average at best and Mcduffie is a rookie. Rookies virtually always struggle in coverage in their first season in the NFL. S Justin Reid is a massive downgrade from Honey Badger is Matthieu was the 14th highest graded cover S in 2021 while Reid was 88th out of 93 qualified safeties.
  • KC D ranked 7th in pressure rate last year but that dropped to just 25th when they didn’t blitz. They added DE George Karlaftis so I would anticipate the pass-rush being formidable in 2022 between him Clark and Chris Jones on the interior.
  • Ultimately I think this game is correctly lined at -3.5 but if I could grab a KC -2.5 or -3 at -120 or better I probably would as I think they are being undervalued generally entering 2022. For now pass.

ATS Pick: KC -3.5

Packers @ Vikings (+1.5, 48)

Packers Additions: DT Jarran Reed, WR Sammy Watkins, WR Christian Watson, WR Romeo Doubs, LB Quay Walker, DT Devonte Wyatt

Packers Losses: CB Kevin King, OLB, Za’darius Smith, ILB Whitney Mercilus, WR Davante Adams, WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, T Billy Turner,

Vikings Additions: DT Harrison Phillips, ILB Jordan Hicks, OLB Za’darius Smith, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB Andrew Booth, S Lewis Cine, LB Brian Asamoah

Vikings Losses: CB Bashaud Breeland, CB Mackensie Alexander, DE Everson Griffen, S Xavier Woods, DT Sheldon Richardson, ILB Anthony Barr, DT Michael Pierce, TE Tyler Conklin

Analysis

  • Vikings enter this matchup with a multitude of reasons to be optimistic. HC Kevin O’Connell is coming over from the Rams and represents at the very least a massive offensive philosophy upgrade over former HC Mike Zimmer’s system.
  • Another reason to be excited as the simple fact that the Packers offense has gotten significantly worse with the departure of Davante Adams. Adams absolutely torched the Vikings last season catching 18 passes for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns. MVS also played well in the first matchup with 4 receptions, 123 yards and a TD.
  • The Packers have a ton of production to replace and they appear to be entering the season with Sammy Watkins/Allen Lazard as their #1 and #2 WRs. Regardless of what you think about these two and the young depth behind them it is virtually guaranteed that they will not replicate their performance from last year. The Packers have finished #2 and #1 in Pass DVOA the past 2 seasons.
  • The deterioration of the Packers receiver room is especially beneficial to the Vikings given that their secondary is easily the weakest unit on their roster. MIN was about league-average in coverage last year but they lost CBs Bashuad Breeland and Mackensie Alexander and were left with just CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson has been declining every year and turned 32 this offseason.
  •  Chandon Sullivan, Cameron Dantzler, and rookie Andrew Booth will play alongside Peterson. Dantzler has been solid his first 2 seasons in the NFL but Sullivan is awful (82nd coverage grade) and Booth is just a rookie. At Safety the Vikings will likely start rookie Lewis Cine alongside Harrison Smith.
  • The front-7 should be solid once again after finishing top-10 in adjusted sack rate despite missing Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen for much of the season. They lost griffin but poached DE Za’darius Smith away from GB and they added DT Harrison Phillips from BUF. These are meaningful additions to their run defense that struggled finishing 25th in rush DVOA allowed and dead-last in Adjusted Line Yards.
  • The Packers offense likely still has a slight edge in this matchup but it is not as drastic as in years past and if they can’t keep Rodgers clean they will struggle to score. Rodgers is obviously the back to back MVP but he is also the most sensitive QB to pressure in the NFL.

DVOA w/out pressure: 81.1%

DVOA w/Pressure: -94.9%

Fortunately, his OL returns LT David Bakhtiari and they ranked 4th best in pressure rate last year even without Bakhtiari.

  • On the flip side, Kirk Cousins will have his work cut out for him vs this Packers defense which may have the best secondary in the entire NFL. The Vikings are loaded with skill position talent between Jeffersom, Thielen, Osborne, Smith, Cook, and Mattison but the Packers have plenty of elite DBs to matchup with them.
  • The one area where the Vikings may have an edge is in the trenches where they finished 9th in explosive run rank and the Packers defense finished 28th in explosive run rank allowed. This packers defense has been weak against the run for a few years now but they did attempt to improve their front-7 in the first round of the draft by selecting 2 George Bulldogs; DT Devonte Wyatt and LB Quay Walker. Both guys are uber talented and projected to play major snaps early but it is unreasonable to expect them to be elite right away.
  • This game is lined correctly in my opinion and instead of picking a side I would be more inclined to lean towards the under 49 here. The Packers have ranked 31st in  neutral game script pace in all 3 years of the Matt Lafleur era. Their offense isn’t going to get more explosive/fast after losing Davante and MVS. I expect this Packers offense to rely heavily on their run game early in the season and that will only further contribute to their lackadaisical pace. When the Vikings have the ball on offense they will be implementing an entirely new scheme against a top-5 secondary in the NFL. As long as the packers can limit the explosive runs from Dalvin Cook and Mattison I think this game likely stays under 49.

Lean: Under 49
ATS Pick: MIN +1.5

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (+1.5, 50)

Bucs Additions: DE Akiem Hicks, S Logan Ryan, S Keanu Neal, WR Russell Gage, G Shaq Mason, DE Logan Hall, T Luke Goedeke, RB Rachaad White, TE Cade Otton

Bucs Losses: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Andrew Adams, S Jordan Whitehead, CB Richard Sherman, G Ali Marpet, G Alex Cappa, RB Ronald Jones, WR Antonio Brown, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE OJ Howard

Cowboys Additions: DE Dante Fowler, WR James Washington, OL Tyler Smith, DE Sam Williams, WR Jalen Tolbert

Cowboys Losses: DE Randy Gregory, WR Amari Cooper, WR Cedrick Wilson, RT La’el Collins, C Conor Williams, S Keanu Neal, S Damontae Kazee, LB Jaylon Smith,

Analysis

  • Bucs interior OL issues are a real problem going up against a DAL D that ranked top-10 in pressure rate in 2021. DAL lost DE Randy Gregory but still return most of the Parsons and Lawrence. Parsons lead the NFL in pressure rate last year and Lawrence was 4th in pressure rate amongst edge defenders. Bucs have now lost 3 interior OL since last year and we know Brady struggles with pressure up the middle.
  • The Cowboys are certainly due for massive defensive regression this year after leading the NFL in turnover EPA in 2021. This defense survived on creating turnovers last year but when they weren’t creating turnovers they weren’t very good. Turnovers are rarely stable year-over-year so we should expect them to regress towards league-average this season.
  • One thing going for the Cowboys in this matchup is the lack of WRs talent behind Mike Evans. They signed Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason and this is still a good unit but it is nowhere near what they rolled out in the 2021 season.
  • I think the Cowboys actually matchup well here as they ranked #1 in the NFL in DVOA allowed to #1 WRs, RBs, and the slot last year. Brady is going to look to target Mike Evans but Diggs was able to hold him to 3 catches and just 24 yards in the Week 1 matchup. The Cowboys also had the best DVOA against short passes in the NFL so it doesn’t seem likely that Brady will be able to carve them up with dumpoffs to his RBs.
  • Fortunately for the Bucs, the DAL offense also lost a significant amount of talent in the offseason. They will be rolling out rookie WR Jalen Tolbert as their #2 WR after losing Cedrick Wilson and Amari cooper in the offseason. Gallup is out with injury so behind Tolbert will be James Washington coming over from PIT after grading 113th out of 117 receivers in receiving grade in 2021. Dak has significantly less talent to work with then he did last year when he put up 29 points on this TB defense.
  • Dak’s OL talent has also been crippled following the departure of RT La’el Collins and the pre-season injury to LT Tyron Smith. The Cowboys will now be starting rookie Tyler Smith at LT and Terrence Steele at RT. Not ideal when you are going up against this TB front-7 that finished 4th in 2021 pressure rate.
  • I lean TB here at -1.5 given that I have more respect for their defense and secondary receiving options behind Evans. Russell Gage is underrated; ranking 66th percentile in success rate vs man coverage last year. His counting stats have been low as he was stuck in a run-heavy system with the Falcons in 2021. Now he joins the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL and gets a significant QB upgrade in Brady. The same can be said for Julio Jones who was stuck in the #1 most run-heavy early down offense in the NFL last year and dealt with multiple injuries. I haven’t even mentioned Scotty Miller who is a fairly decent 4th WR. The Bucs simply have more talent than this DAL team as currently constructed.

ATS Pick: TB -1.5

Broncos @ Seahawks (+6, 42.5)

Broncos Additions: QB Russ Wilson, DE Randy Gregory, DT DJ Jones, ILB Alex Singleton, CB K’waun Williams, T Billy Turner, S JR Reed, OLB Nik Nonitto, TE Greg Dulcich

Broncos Losses: DE Shelby Harris, TE Noah Fant, QB Drew Lock, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Bryce Callahan, LB AJ Johnson, LB Kenny Young, QB Teddy Bridgewater

Seahawks Additions: QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, LB Uchenna Nwosu, CB Justin Coleman, DE Shelby Harris, DT Quinton Jefferson, T Charles Cross, DE Boye Mafe, RB Kenneth Walker, T Abraham Lucas

Seahawks Losses: QB Russ Wilson, C Ethan Pocic, T Duane Brown, TE Gerald Everett, CB DJ Reed, ILB Bobby Wagner, DE Benson Mayowa

Analysis

  • This line was sitting around -4 a few weeks ago but has been steamed up to -6.5 as of this writing.
  • Denver’s defense didn’t perform as good as expected as they finished 20th in overall defensive DVOA. They should benefit from positive injury regression as they were the 4th most injured defense in the NFL in 2021. CB/secondary is the strength of the unit as they allowed the 4th lowest completion percentage in the NFL last year. They lost slot CB Bryce Callahan to division rival Chargers but replaced him with K’waun Williams. K’waun ranked ninth in Adjusted Yards allowed per coverage snap in 2021 with the 49ers. Between Williams, Surtain, Darby, and Justin Simmons the Broncos have a solid secondary.
  • The Seahawks will be starting either Drew Lock and Geno Smith but Pete Caroll has talked extensively about how he wants to get back to running the ball more and their actions certainly indicate that is their intention as they used a 2nd round pick on Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker in the offseason. Walker and Penny will likely split carries early in the season. DEN struggled to defend the run last year as they finished 21st in Run DVOA allowed. They should expect to be better this season as they added LB Alex Singleton from the Eagles in the offseason and they will be getting back DE Bradley Chubb from injury. Singleton finished as the 11th best run defender in the NFL in 2021 and Chubb has been a good run defender during his few years in the league. Throw in DT D.J. Jones who ranked first among DT’s in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate in 2021 and I think they can reasonably expect their run defense to be at least league-average this season.
  • Seahawks certainly still have receiving talent with Metcalf, Lockett, and Fant but all that talent means nothing if Geno/Lock don’t have time to throw. We should expect this to be a bottom-5 OL unit after they ranked 32nd in pressure rate in 2021. There is no reason to expect improvement as they lost veteran LT Duane Brown and will be replacing him with a rookie. In total they will be starting 3 new OL including new RT Jake Curhan who finished 79th in pass-blocking grade last season, only 80 Tackles qualified so he was literally almost the worst pass-blocking tackle in the NFL.
  • Ultimately I see little reason to expect this SEA offense to be competent given their lack OL and QB talent combined with their fundamental HC deficiency with Pete Caroll still in charge.
  • The Broncos should be able to attack this SEA secondary consistently. The SEA secondary was already awful and they tried to cover it up by playing the most zone coverage in the entire NFL. SEA ranked dead-last in man coverage using it on just 15% of their defensive plays. This strategy was essentially death by a thousand cuts as they consistently got torched on short routes. They allowed a 51% success rate on QB dropbacks; barely better than HOU and NYJ. 86% of the passes completed against SEA were marked “short”. They were historically bad against RB passes; according to Football Outsiders, they surrendered 1,105 receiving yards to running backs, second most in their database behind the 1,152 given up by the 2010 Titans.
  • The Broncos lost big Slot WR Tim Patrick to a season-ending injury but they still have a plethora of good pass-catchers with WRs Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler along with TEs Albert O and Greg Dulcich. There is literally no reason to be optimistic about this SEA defense that lost its two best pass-rushers DE Carlos Dunlap and Rasheem Green. These guys accounted for nearly half of their 39 sacks in 2021. SEA also lost its #1 CB D.J. Reed who signed with NYJ in the offseason.
  • The only thing going for SEA in this game is the homefield advantage but as we have seen over the past few years homefield advantage has begun to mean less and less in the NFL.
  • I missed the best # so I will likely not be wagering on this game but if forced to pick a side it would still be DEN at anything below -7.

ATS PICK: DEN -6