Steelers @ Browns (-4.5, 38.5)
Chiefs @ Colts (+5.5, 50.5)
Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5, 47.5)
Bills @ Dolphins (+5, 52.5)
Bengals @ Jets (+6, 45)
Lions @ Vikings (-6, 52.5)
Ravens @ Patriots (+3, 44)
Raiders @ Titans (+2, 45.5)
Saints @ Panthers (+2.5, 41)
Texans @ Bears (-3, 39.5)
Jaguars @ Chargers (-7, 47)
Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5, 48.5)
Packers @ Buccaneers (-1, 42)
Falcons @ Seahawks (-1, 42)
49ers @ Broncos (+1.5, 43.5)
Cowboys @ Giants (-1, 39)

Steelers @ Browns (-5.5, 38.5)

  • Steelers upset Bengals in week 1 in spite of an awful offensive performance. It is fairly clear that Trubisky isn’t the answer at QB that many surmised he might be. While certainly an upgrade over Roethlisberger, his lackluster performance against two middling defensive units in NE/CIN doesn’t inspire much confidence that he’ll be able to have much success against this loaded CLE D. Yes CLE has been a bottom-10 defense by EPA and DVOA through 2 weeks but most of the production against them has come in the 4th quarter when they were playing softer coverage. Going by success rate, it is clear to me that this is a top-10 defense that has played down to their competition with soft coverage in the 4th quarter.
  • Another thing going for CLE in this matchup is their front-7 matchup vs the PIT OL. PIT is bottom-10 in line yards and just barely above average in adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile this CLE defense has posted good pressure rate #s despite going against two competent OLs in CAR and NYJ. I expect Garrett and Clowney to dominate these tackles. The Steelers tackles have actually done a decent job in pass-pro the first 2 weeks but again haven’t had to face an elite edge rusher like Garrett or Clowney. Expect CLE to win with four-rushers consistently on Thursday.
  • The CLE offense should have some success against this front-7 as PIT ranked 32nd in explosive run rate allowed in 2021. Keep in mind that they ranked that poorly despite having TJ Watt for all of last season who is now gone for this matchup. Through 2 weeks PIT ranks 20th in rush epa/play and 18th in run DVOA. The absence of Watt was felt in week 2 vs NE where they allowed nearly 5 YPC after allowing Mixon just 3 YPC in week 1. I expect this Browns run game to rip off some explosives with Chubb/Hunt.
  • We have to give the steelers pass defense some kudos as they have looked great ranking 6th in dropback EPA and 9th in Pass DVOA. The Week 1 performance against the Bengals was impressive but holding Mac Jones to 17 points isn’t quite as impressive. It is yet to be seen how this unit will do against a semi-competent offensive passing attack without Watt. Brissett struggled in week 1 but was outstanding in Week 2 as his YPA essentially doubled from 4.3 to 8.5. His completion % went from 52.9% to 81.5%. Overall Brissett was 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in both CPOE and PFF grade on the week. He did end up throwing the game-sealing INT but its tough to put that on him after watching the CLE defense and special teams completely collapse. We’ll see if he can continue his competent play vs a tougher Steelers defense on a short-week.
  • This game is lined correctly in my opinion and I will not be taking any side or total for now.

Chiefs @ Colts (+6.5, 49.5)

  • Colts got embarrassed in week 2 by the division-rival Jaguars. Matt Ryan finished dead-last in most QB metrics without his #1 WR Pittman. Ultimately, the offense was unable to score at all against a JAX defense that allowed 28 points to Carson Wentz in week 1.
  • KC looked dominant in week 1 and then benefitted from some turnover luck in week 2 vs LAC. LAC was able to contain Mahomes by rushing 4 with shell coverage over top but LAC is unique in the fact that they may be the most talented defense in the NFL. The Colts are absolutely not the most talented defense and they have been banged up as their star ILB Darius Leonard has yet to play a single snap this season. IND is built to stop the run and pressure the QB but they just don’t have a very good secondary. This likely won’t be the bloodbath that was the KC/ARI week 1 game but Mahomes should have more success moving the football here than he did in Week 2. Keep in mind that the Colts defense just allowed sophomore Trevor Lawrence to post the highest epa/play on the week (0.553) and 2nd only to Mahomes on the season. By no means is Lawrence bad, but he certainly doesn’t have the weapons that Mahomes has or the OL talent. I won’t be shocked if Mahomes puts up 30 on this defense on Sunday.
  • Another thing going for Mahomes is the presence of Gus Bradley as the Colts defensive coordinator. Mahomes hung a total of 89 points on Bradley’s defense last year when Gus was in LV with the Raiders. Bradley was foolish enough to give Mahomes a bunch of single-high cover-3 looks last year and he paid for it. The Colts play zone on over 80% of their defensive snaps. Colts do rank #1 in NFL in ypc allowed to RBs so don’t expect the Chiefs to have much success on the ground.
  • Colts only chance to win outright in this one is to establish some semblance of a run game with RB Jonathan Taylor. In the wk1 tie to HOU, Taylor ran the ball 31 times for 162 total yards (5.1 YPC) but last week he only got 9 carries for 54 yards (6.0 ypc). Overall they are bottom-10 in both epa and dvoa run offense. They have been game-scripted out of the run in both of their two games so it will be important to keep this a one-possession game. Matt Ryan currently ranks dead-last in dropback epa/play in the NFL despite playing two defenses that were projected to be below-average if not downright awful.
  • KC ranked top-10 in pressure rate in 2021 before adding DE George Karlaftis in the 1st round of the draft this offseason. Their defense has been fairly solid through 2 games and actually ranks 6th in rush DVOA. They also have a stud #1 CB in L’jarius Snead, who they can have shadow Pittman Jr if he is cleared to play.
  • IND likely needs to hit a few explosive runs and win the turnover battle if they want to have a chance on Sunday.
  • Game is lined correctly in my opinion.

ATS Pick: IND +6.5

Bills @ Dolphins (+6, 53.5)

  • I don’t anticipate the Dolphins getting many stops against this Bills offense. This MIA defense has been massively overrated each of the last two seasons due to their turnover luck. When they fail to get pressure on the QB they get absolutely torched. If they continue their high man/high blitz tendencies they will get lit up by Allen. They blitzed Lamar on over 50% of his dropbacks in week 2 and gave up 38 points because of it. Keep in mind that Lamar has significantly worse receiver talent than Allen and was down multiple OL.
  • This Bills defense is notoriously elite at defending the deep-ball as they allowed 0 deep-ball touchdowns in 2021. Hyde and Poyer are an elite safety duo and should be able to limit the deep-shots to Hill and Waddle. The Bills have a solid slot CB to matchup with these guys in Taron Johnson. Bills have showed they can sit in shell-coverage and get pressure with 4 against the Rams and it is hard to argue that the MIA OL is much better than LAR. MIA upgraded the left side of their OL with the addition of Armstead and Williams but the right side is still a liability. BUF has plethora of pass-rushers to send at immobile Tua.
  • I have a ton of respect for Tua and was high on him entering the season but this will be easily the best defense he has played thus far and they will likely be completely unable to run the ball. BUF front-7 ranks #1 in NFL in line yards and we just saw them absolutely shut down Derrick Henry, holding him to less than 1.5 YPC.
  • Everyone keeps talking about BUF coming down to earth but all of their statistics indicate that they aren’t due for regression. When they throw the ball on early downs they can’t be stopped. Keep in mind that the Titans defense isn’t some scrub unit by any means and they just made them look absolutely silly when they chose to throw the ball. Titans are a heavy dime personnel team with lots of CB depth but the Dolphins don’t really have the same talent at CB/safety in my opinion. Holland and Xavien Howard are certainly talented but the other guys can all be beat in coverage especially when they are left in 1-1 due to blitzes.
  • I anticipate Allen punishing this overrated defense if they choose to blitz him at the same rate that they normally blitz teams.
  • I haven’t played anything yet but definitely lean Bills at -5.
  • Update: With both Bills starting safeties out I definitely lean over 53 and expect the Dolphins to have more success offensively. Gabe Davis should be good to go as well for the Bills.

ATS Pick: BUF -5.5

Bengals @ Jets (+5, 45)

  • The Jets pulled off a miracle 31-30 win over CLE in wk2 but I expect their defense to struggle once again vs a desperate CIN team. The AFC champs have dropped their first two games in an OT loss to PIT and another 3-point loss to the Cooper Rush led Dallas Cowboys.
  • This will be the easiest pass-defense that CIN has faced. NYJ currently rank dead-last in overall defensive DVOA and pass DVOA. They also rank 31st in epa/play on defense. NYJ just got dominated by a Brissett led CLE offense and I expect them to give up a lot of points here as this will be by far the best WR trio they have faced this season.
  • On the flip side, the CIN defense has gotten to hide a little bit against two bottom-5 QBs to start the season. I don’t think Flacco is very good at this stage in his career but he just showed he can still be competent against a very good CLE defense. NYJ should be able to expose this CIN defense that hasn’t really had to play anyone yet.
  • I am betting the over 44.5.

Bet: OVER 44.5

ATS Pick: CIN -4.5

Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5, 47)

  • Eagles made a statement on MNF by dominating the Vikings in all phases of the game. They were able to run and pass the ball efficiently against a MIN defense that looked awful.
  • The Commanders secondary has looked awful through 2 games as they just allowed Jared Goff to light them up on Sunday. The run defense wasn’t much better, allowing the lions to run for over 200 yards despite DET being down multiple interior OL starters.
  • WAS is dead-last in explosive rushing yards allowed and dead-last in ypc to RBs. Not great when you are going up against Hurts and this dominant OL.
  •  

Ravens @ Patriots (+3, 43.5)

  • Patriots grinded out a 3-point win on the road in PIT but I still have very little respect for this team. This is a team that isn’t particularly talented on defense and is offensively limited due to their QB and coaching staff. Joe Judge and Matt Patricia are not an effective OC room and Mac Jones is a completely immobile pocket-passer. They also lack consistent separators at the WR position.
  • All of these things bode well for a Ravens defense that has traditionally liked to play man and blitz a lot. Ravens choked against the Dolphins in wk2, blowing a 21 point 4th quarter lead but the Dolphins have all the offensive talent that NE doesn’t have. They have multiple separators and they have a good offensive coordinator.
  • BAL currently ranks #1 in NFL in pass DVOA (103.8%) with nearly double the amount of DVOA of the 2nd closest team BUF (63.7%). The Ravens are definitely going to regress from that number but it is clear that they have been able to generate some explosive passing gains through the air despite a lack of receiving depth behind sophomore Rashod Bateman.
  • NE D did a good job at limiting explosives vs MIA and PIT and it can be argued that those two teams have better skill position talent than BAL. Obviously Lamar poses an entirely different challenge as he is basically on offense onto himself.
  • NE may be able to slow down Lamar but I don’t see the NE offense being successful enough to pull of an upset here. Strong lean to BAL -3 for now.

ATS Pick: BAL -3

Lions @ Vikings (-6, 52.5)

  • The Vikings have the strongest homefield advantage in the NFL and I believe they will be able to continue their strong ATS record at home vs a slightly overrated Lions team.
  • The Lions have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL through 2 weeks (39.6%). No QB outside of Aaron Rodgers has a higher passer rating vs man coverage than Kirk Cousins over the past 3 seasons. Yes, Kirk struggled against man coverage against PHI but willing to throw that out against a much larger sample size of success vs man. DET also doesn’t have the secondary talent that PHI has. Kirk should be able to cook this defense all day if they continue to play man.
  • Goff on the other hand struggles against zone coverage and we know MIN has played the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL through 2 weeks. Goff is a bottom-5 QB in YPA vs zone coverage since becoming a Detroit Lion.
  •  Dalvin Cook should also bounce back against a Detroit defensive front-7 that has struggled against the run this year.
  • DET is overvalued right now after beating up on a horrible WAS defense. Everyone is down on Kirk but he just played two top-10 defenses in weeks 1 and 2 and now gets to go up against a DET secondary with maybe 1 good CB in Okudah. I expect Vikings to bounce back and cover here but for now it is just a lean.

ATS Pick: MIN -6

Ravens @ Patriots (+3, 44)

  • Ravens just had a heart-breaking loss to Dolphins where their defense fell apart but the Dolphins pose a unique challenge for a defense as they currently rank 1st in pre-snap motion usage in the NFL and they have two explosive playmakers in Tyreek and Waddle. NE lacks explosive playmaking and they have two dullards at OC in Judge and Patricia. Baltimore has been solid against the run through their first 2 games ranking 8th in success rate in the NFL. I don’t really see a path to success for NE unless they force Lamar into turnovers. Lamar has been playing at an MVP level through the first 2 weeks of the season so it is hard to bank on that especially given the lack of playmakers on the NE defense.
  • Strong lean BAL -3.

ATS Pick: BAL -3

Raiders @ Titans (+2, 45.5)

  • This is a matchup of two of the more “fraudulent” 2021 teams. Both teams come into this one 0-2 and it will be interesting to see which team is truly more fraudulent. Raiders were widely considered to be overrated but at least they made meaningful talent additions in the offseason. Titans are a team that may truly want to just be bad, call this year a wash, and then cut Tannehill to save $17 million in the offseason.
  • TEN had stretches where they looked competent vs BUF in the 1st half when they chose to use early-down play-action or pass the ball on early downs, but this became rarer and rarer following their initial touchdown drive. As is usually the problem with TEN, we can’t rely on Todd Downing/Mike Vrabel to consistently utilize Tannehill properly.
  • Another thing working against TEN is the complete deterioration of Derrick Henry. BUF appears to be a truly elite run defense but it is too early to say that about NYG. Regardless, it is fairly clear that Henry’s mileage has caught up with him and he is nowhere near the player he used to be. This is another tough matchup for him against an LV front-7 that currently ranks 7th best in rush EPA allowed. LV finished top-10 in rush epa/play and success rate last year so this is nothing new for them. Unless Downing alters the Titans offensive gameplan and “lets Tanny cook”, I don’t really see much success for TEN here.
  • TEN also lost franchise LT Taylor Lewan for the season last game. Dennis Staley stepped in for the next 55 snaps posted a poor 58.2 run-block grade and an absolutely atrocious 14.5 pass-block grade. This is not the guy you want blocking Maxx Crosby or Chandler Jones on the edge. Keeping Tannehill is essential as he was bottom-5 in the NFL in sensitivity to pressure last year.
  • LV may struggle to block on the other side of the ball as well but at least they have some answers in their receiving corps with the trio of Waller, Adams, and Renfrow. We also know that we can rely on Mcdaniel to not call inefficient runs over and over again. LV currently ranks 6th in pass rate over expectation (5.9%), while TEN is down in the bottom 5 at 28th (-6.3%).
  • Titans just signed CB Terrance Mitchell on Wednesday so its looking like CB Kristian Fulton should still be out. We just saw what they gave up to a #1 WR in Stefon Diggs on MNF. No reason Adams and Carr can’t do the same thing to this youthful secondary.
  • Update: Fulton appears to be in while Renfrow is out so I will be staying away from LV today.

ATS Pick: LV -2

Saints @ Panthers (+3, 40.5)

  • Saints finally lost to Brady in Week 2 and Panthers had an embarrassing loss to the NYG where they lost multiple fumbles and Baker Mayfield was wildly inaccurate. Both of these teams are better than what their current #s would indicate in my opinion but it is hard to get in an accurate read on either given the variance at the QB position. Jameis lead a nice 4th quarter comeback vs ATL in week 1, and he finished 7th in CPOE (7.5%), and 13th in epa/play. He followed that up with a 29th place finish in epa/play and was 17th in CPOE (-2.5%). Mayfield has been bad both weeks and was the worst QB in the NFL by CPOE in week 2. Both of these offenses likely better than what we’ve seen but hard to expect consistently good QB play from either of these guys.
  • We saw the Falcons absolutely dominate NO in the trenches in week 1 and I don’t see any reason why CAR can’t have similar success with CMC at RB. I think this Saints defense is massively overrated right now after a poor performance vs ATL. They were better against TB but this Brady offense is nowhere near the same offense as last year and is dealing with tons of injuries. I think there is a good chance we see CAR run the ball effectively, which will allow them to get into more of their play-action stuff which is where Baker traditionally has been efficient. I was impressed with their late comeback vs CLE, a defense that I have a lot of respect for this year.
  • On the flip side, I think that NO may have some success as well if they can protect Winston. NO struggled in week 2 but TB is a top-5 defense right now. We saw how bad CAR defense looked against Brissett and the Browns. NO has a lot more weapons than CLE and outside of Jaycee Horn I don’t really have a ton of respect for this CAR secondary.
  • Strong lean to over 40.5. No play on the side.

ATS Pick: NO -3

Texans @ Bears (-3, 40)

  • This is certainly a toilet bowl matchup but I think the Bears are probably being a little disrespected with this line. Yes the 49ers win was a flukey monsoon win but it was still a win. There has been much disparagement of their second half playcalling vs the Packers but they actually hung in there for a little and competed. They were damn close to being in a one-score game if that Fields sneak had gone a little differently. Packers and 49ers are both top-5 NFC teams and top-10 defenses. Who have the Texans played? They got to go up against a Colts team that has always been horrible under Frank Reich in September and it is pretty clear they aren’t very good following their 24-0 loss to JAX. IND was also missing their best defensive player ILB Darius Leonard in the week 1 tie to HOU. It is fairly clear that HOU has no interest in +EV decision-making after watching them cowardly punt the ball on 4th and short in OT when they were inside Colts territory.
  • HOU played DEN close but it appears that DEN is not the team we thought it was heading into the season following two straight horribly managed Nathaniel Hackett games. DEN also lost Jerry Jeudy 10 snaps into the game which left them having to rely on their WR5 and WR6 on the depth chart alongside WR1 Courtland Sutton. HOU still managed to lose by a touchdown.
  • CHI should be able to have some success with play-action and scheme up some good looks for Fields against this weak HOU secondary.
  • CHI has a sure coaching edge in this matchup of Luke Getsy vs Lovie Smith.

ATS Pick: CHI -3

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7, 48)

  • Herbert took a huge shot to the ribs on TNF but he appears to be likely to play. It’s unclear whether WR Keenan Allen will be good to go. LAC outplayed the Chiefs on both sides of the ball but had some poor turnover luck topped off by a 99 yard pick six on the KC 1 yard line.
  • JAX blowout win over the Colts was absolutely not a fluke by any efficiency metric. JAX posted (+110.0% DVOA) in win over IND and now rank 2nd in NFL in overall DVOA behind BUF. For reference, only 19 teams have had a +100% DVOA win within the first 3 weeks of a season since 2003. It should be mentioned that IND was down its top-2 WRs and they have an absolute statue at QB. Still the beginning of JAX season is impressive as they rank #1 in the NFL in rush success rate allowed and on offense they have a QB who currently ranks top-7 in EPA/play.
  • JAX weakness appears to be their secondary but I worry about LAC ability to separate effectively if they are missing Keenan Allen. This was a worry of mine heading into the season and the KC game only further reinforced it. Yes they were efficient when throwing against KC but much of their success game on tight-window contested catch plays. Mike Williams is an elite contested-catch guy but these types of passes tend to be less efficient/less reliable than throws to wide receivers who have successfully “won” on a route and separated from the coverage. It will be interesting to see if this LAC team can torch JAX through the air because I don’t expect them to have much success running the ball here. JAX has shut down the run so far this season and they drew a tough matchup last week against Jonathan Taylor. Ekeler has struggled to run the ball effectively and I don’t see that changing against a defense that currently ranks 4th in rush DVOA and #1 in rush success rate (27.6%). Hopefully Herbert is truly healthy because LAC is likely going to ask him to drop-back and throw it often in this one.
  • On the flip side of the ball we should expect Trevor Lawrence to regress from his week 2 performance as this LAC defense as an entirely different thing than anything he has had to go up against thus far in 2022. LAC is particularly well-suited to defend this passing attack as they have been absolutely lockdown against the slot thus far in 2022. They have allowed 6 catches for 31 yards to both primary slot receivers they faced this year (Renfrow 3/21 and Juju 3/10). Neither of those guys are bums by any means and much of JAX explosive passing offense has been generated by the Kirk/Lawrence connection. Kirk operates out of the slot on more than 70% of his snaps so it will be interesting to see if LAC slot dominance continues here.
  • If LAC can neutralize Kirk in the slot and limit explosive gains on the ground I think that they should be able to score enough to win at home. I am avoiding the -7 and will not be touching them as a teaser leg/ML piece unless Keenan Allen is active. I think there is way too much uncertainy with this offense right now and did not like what I saw from OC Joe Lombardi on Thursday against the Chiefs. Lean under 48 overall but haven’t played anything yet.
  • With Herbert out I would have much caution with the Chargers as a Chase Daniel is not a very competent backup. Lean under here.

ATS Pick: Jax +3.5

Packers @ Bucs (-1, 42)

  • The Bucs have so many injury questions that I am likely betting the Packers as I believe they are extremely undervalued right now. Packers had a misleading loss to the Vikings in week 1 where they were actually extremely effective on early-downs. They were near the top of the league at bypassing 3rd downs and actually moved the ball well but had a few untimely turnovers and some drops by their receivers. They were eventually game-scripted out of their ability to run the ball but Aaron Jones was actually running for nearly 10 YPC before they had to up their tempo and go pass-heavy.
  • The Bucs defense is legitimately good but I am extremely concerned about this offense from a season-long perspective even prior to all these WR injuries. I was concerned about this offense because of all the interior OL injuries and now they have lost LT Donovan Smith as well. Its easy to glorify Brady because of his career achievements but at 45 years old he is a literal statue and completely ineffective under pressure. We saw it in the Cowboys game whenever Parsons won on the edge Brady basically just gave up on the play diving-down to avoid a hit. The Packers may not have the elite edge-rushers that DAL and NO has but they certainly have plenty of depth on their DL between stud DT Kenny Clark, DE Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, and rookie 1st rounder DT Devonte Wyatt. This unit ranked top-10 in pressure rate last year and should be able to find some success against this injured Bucs OL.
  • It looks like the Bucs WR room has a huge cluster injury issue as they just had to sign WR Cole Beasley off the street. There is a chance that the Bucs enter this game without a WR room of Scotty Miller, Breshad Perriman, Russell Gage, and Beasley. Keep in mind they no longer have elite TE play either with a room of Cam Brate and rookie Cade Otton. The bottom-line is this is not the same talent that surrounded Brady in his first 2 Bucs seasons and I expect them to struggle against a Packers defense that is slightly undervalued right now. Coming into the season this was a consensus top-5 secondary and it feels like people have kind of forgotten that because they struggled in week 1 vs WR Justin Jefferson who is likely the most talented WR in the NFL right now. TB won’t be rolling out any aliens like Justin Jefferson in this one so the Packers secondary should be just fine.
  • Rodgers is also old but he isn’t quite the complete statue that Brady is and I trust him to find answers to TB’s defense more often than Brady will against GB’s D. Bet Packers ML in this one.

BET: Packers Moneyline +105

ATS Pick: GB +1.5

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5, 48.5)

  • Sean Mcvay is 9-1-1 ATS vs ARI since he took over in LA. He is 10-1 SU.
  • We saw this Rams team completely dominate this ARI team in the wild card round of the playoffs last year but the Rams have looked vulnerable to start 2022. I was concerned with this team heading into the season and my fears were confirmed in the blowout loss to the Bills. This is not the same OL that Stafford had during their SB run and this defense has also experienced some regression as I had expected. The reason I was so concerned with the defense was their defensive #s with pressure vs their #s without. This LAR team was a top-4 defense by DVOA when they pressured the QB, but they dropped into the bottom-10 in DVOA when they failed to get pressure. Overall, this team had was dead-last in their DVOA splits with pressure and without (-143.70% difference).  Fortunately this team ranked 3rd in pressure rate in 2021 but I knew that they were due for some regression after losing key edge-defender Von Miller.
  • Despite all that it is hard for me to back this ARI team given the matchup. ARI looked pretty bad against a weaker LV secondary and Kyler should struggle with the interior pressure from Donald up the middle all game.
  • LAR offense should have no issue abusing this ARI secondary as long as they can keep Stafford clean. JJ Watt needs to be addressed but outside of him there is not much to be excited about when it comes to this ARI pass-rush.

ATS Pick: LAR -3.5

Falcons @ Seahawks (-1, 42)

  • Falcons have started the season 0-2 but have certainly proved that they are not going to be some push-over easy win each week. I was low on this team heading into the season due to how weak they were in the trenches on both sides of the ball but they have proved me wrong to a certain extent. In week 1 they ranked #1 in the NFL in pressure rate on defense, and their OL was #1 in adjusted sack rate, preventing Mariota from taking a single pressure in the first 3 quarters of their game against the Saints. Overall their offense is 4th in dropback success rate and 12th in dropback epa. The problem is they rank 26th in pass rate over expectation. They need to let Mariota throw the ball more if they want to start winning games.
  • Focusing on this matchup I don’t see many objective reasons for the Seahawks being favored outside of their well-documented loud homefield advantage. SEA may have the better record, but they are certainly not the better team and I think ATL actually matches up well. CB AJ Terrell has the physicality necessary to match up with DK Metcalf and CB Casey Heyward is serviceable in coverage if they line Lockett up out wide.
  • On offense ATL should be able to finally get Pitts going against a SEA team that was 26th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021. The SEA LB corps is god-awful and even if they choose to try and matchup a CB on him he should feast. SEA plays the highest rate of zone coverage in the league so Pitts should be open on those short and intermediate routes all day.
  • Mariota is a much better QB than Geno and I think the Falcons can pull off the upset and get their first win on the road here. Strong lean and potential play on ATL.

ATS Pick: ATL +1

49ers @ Broncos (+1.5, 45)

  • Jimmy G is back after Trey Lance went out with a season-ending ankle injury.
  • Russ only putting up 16 on this Texans defense is a bit concerning to me. I thought that the concern over their week 1 loss to SEA was just slightly overblown given how flukey it was and the fact that their defense was much better in the 2nd half but that week 2 performance against HOU definitely a little concerning as Hackett continued his idiotic coaching decisions in week 2.
  • Overall DEN O ranks 9th in epa/play, led by a passing offense that ranks top-5 in dropback EPA. They have been held back by their run game that ranks bottom-10 in most metrics, which is a bit concerning considering their OL ranks 2nd in  the NFL in adjusted line yards.
  • The DEN D ranks top-6 in both EPA and DVOA but they haven’t played anyone yet. The same could be said for this SF defense but at least SF has a track record of success from last year. I was initially leaning over given that I think DEN defense is overrated and Russell Wilson is going to have to throw a lot but I am a bit concerned with the Jeudy injury. SF I also expect to be more pass-heavy with Jimmy back and now that they are down multiple RBs. I also think that the strength of this DEN defense is their DL and Kyle Shanahan is likely smart enough to adapt his gameplan to that.
  • If Jerry Jeudy is out, it would leave DEN having to rely on their WR5 on the depth chart to be their WR2. In the scenario that Jeudy sits I think I would be looking to take SF at anything less than -3. If Jeudy plays I will be looking at the over as I expect both teams will be relatively pass-heavy.

ATS Pick: SF -1.5

Lean: Over 45

Cowboys @ Giants (-1, 39)

  • The Giants have grinded their way to a 2-0 start and you can certainly tell that they have improved from a coaching perspective. The playcalling is much better and the overall aggressiveness on 4th down has been much improved but that’s about all I can honestly say about this team through 2 weeks. The talent level in the secondary has been hidden with outstanding game plans but I worry that it may get exposed in this one if the Giants can’t pressure Cooper Rush.
  • The NYG OL has been awful in pass-protection outside of LT Andrew Thomas. They are dead-last in pressure rate allowed and have allowed a pressure on nearly 50% of drop-backs. This is not a recipe for offensive success vs this DAL team that specializes in pressuring the QB. With Lawrence and Parsons on the edge the NYG OL is going to need to play the game of its life to keep Jones from being sacked multiple times. This DAL team ranks higher in pressure rate than TEN and CAR so this will be the toughest test so far for the NYG OL. They may have success running the ball here as DAL front-7 is a bit lighter in the trenches but overall I don’t expect this offense to have a ton of explosive plays in this one.
  • If the defense can pressure Cooper Rush this team has a chance but that is unlikely if Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari remain out. I certainly lean DAL in this spot but could honestly see it going either way.

ATS Pick: DAL +1