Dolphins @ Bengals (-4, 47)
Vikings @ Saints (+3, 43.5)
Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5, 48)
Bills @ Ravens (+3.5, 51.5)
Commanders @ Cowboys (-3, 42.5)
Bears @ Giants (-3.5, 39)
Jets @ Steelers (-3.5, 40.5)
Seahawks @ Lions (-4.5, 50)
Chargers @ Texans (+4.5, 44.5)
Browns @ Falcons (+1.5, 49.5)
Titans @ Colts (-3.5, 42.5)
Cardinals @ Panthers (-2, 42.5)
Patriots @ Packers (-10, 40.5)
Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5, 46)
Chiefs @ Buccaneers (PK, 45)
Rams @ 49ers (-2, 41.5)

Bets

Bengals -3 (-110)
Bills -3 (-110)
Jets +3.5 (-110)
Commanders +3.5 (-110)
Panthers +1 (-110)
Chiefs PK (-110)

Dolphins @ Bengals (-3, 47.5)

  • The Dolphins defense just had to defend 90 plays in extreme heat vs BUF and now has to travel to play a short-week road game vs a Bengals defense that is healthy and fairly rested after basically sitting in zone for the entire 2nd half of the Jets game. CIN basically packed it on both sides of the ball mid-way through the 3rd quarter of the game once they went up 27-9. Meanwhile the Dolphins had to fight their ass off to get a last second flukey win over a BUF team that pretty much outplayed them. This is a great situational spot for a 1-2 team CIN who will be playing with much more urgency than the Dolphins who are 3-0 and off two highly emotional last second upsets. I have a ton of respect for MIA but this is a rough spot for them.
  • CIN WR corps will be the most talented group that MIA has faced and they are already banged up in the secondary.
  • Burrow #2 in the NFL vs the blitz last year by PFF grade and MIA blitzes at a top-5 rate.
  • CIN defense a bit overrated but legitimately good at limiting explosive passing plays and currently rank top 5 in epa per dropback and 3rd in team coverage grade.
  • Burrow has struggled vs pressure but this is not the same MIA team that ranked #1 in pressure rate in 2021. They have ranked bottom-5 in pressure rate through 3 weeks this year despite their propensity to send multiple rushers.
  • Trust CIN to get a much-needed home win.

BET: CIN -3

ATS Pick: CIN -3

Vikings @ Saints (+3, 44)

  • This is the first London game of the season and it kicks off at 9:30 AM.
  • These two teams were sharp darlings entering 2022 as they both got lots of love from sharp bettors due to expected improvement and regression from the Bucs and Packers. The Vikings have mostly lived up to the offensive hype despite a poor performance against a good PHI D in week 2. The Saints on the other hand have been a dumpster fire and are extremely fortunate to not be 0-3 heading into week 4. Overall, NO ranks 28th in DVOA, due to their horrible offense that ranks 25th in DVOA and 30th in epa/play.
  • The Vikings are the opposite of the Saints as their offense has been efficient but they have been held back by a defense thar ranks 26th in defensive DVOA.
  • NO offense has struggled through 3 weeks but if there was a get-right spot it is against this soft-zone Ed Donatell scheme. MIN is 25th in rush epa and 28th in rush success rate allowed so the Saints should be able to finally get some efficiency from their ground game to keep Winston in manageable situations. The Saints offensive incompetence is likely a bit overrated after playing two very good pass-defenses in the Bucs and Panthers. We all know about the Bucs but CAR is legit too with young phenom CB Jaycee Horn and S Jeremy Chinn leading the way in the secondary. ATL isn’t the worst secondary unit ever either with AJ Terrell and Casey Heyward as CB1 and CB2. I don’t have the same respect for this MIN unit that has gotten carved up by Goff and Hurts in consecutive weeks. Expect Winston to play well here and the Saints to clear at least 20 points.
  • For all my talk about the difficult schedule of opposing pass defenses that NO has played the same could be said about the ease of schedule their defense has faced. NO has faced two QBs in Mariota and Mayfield who are playing their 1st season with entirely new teams and a 45-year old Brady down all of his top pass-catchers and multiple OL. They were down #2 CB Paulson Adebo in the first two games but still this defense is likely overrated in my opinion. Kirk Cousins gets crushed for his primetime performances and likely so but he is consistently solid when the sun is out and I expect him to have some success vs NO defense. Jefferson, Thielen, and Osborne will be the best trio of WRs this defense has faced and Kirk will be the best QB they have faced.
  • I think this game lines up perfectly for an over with an underrated Saints offense and going up against a weak Vikings defense and an overrated Saints defense vs a good MIN offense. Take over 44 in the early London game on Sunday.

BET: Over 44

ATS Pick: NO +3

Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5, 48.5)

  • The eagles got their revenge on the road vs Carson Wentz last week and now they will have an opportunity to welcome home the man who brought them a super bowl, HC Doug Pederson.
  • This is one of the best week 4 matchups as both of these teams enter this game off two impressive victories. The Jaguars blew out the Colts 24-0 in week 2 then hung 38 on a Chargers defense that is widely considered to be the most talented defense in the league on paper.
  • Both of these teams rank top-5 in pass epa and pass dvoa offense but the Jaguars have actually played a few decent defenses (Colts, Chargers). Every team the Eagles have played currently resides in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA. This will be the first real test for PHI as JAX run D currently ranks 1st in rush DVOA, 1st in success rate (27.4%), and 2nd in epa. The JAX defensive secondary looked to be the weakest unit but have rebounded from a poor week 1 start vs the commanders. Led by Shaquill Griffin and sophomore Tyson Campbell who both rank top-30 in coverage grade at the CB position, this will be JAX toughest test as Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Goedert have lit up every team they have played so far.
  • Rookie LB Devin Lloyd has been outstanding in coverage and should be able to limit some of the explosive plays to Goedert.
  • On the other side of the ball, PHI defense has been extremely impressive the past 2 weeks as they basically shutdown two semi-competent offenses. Kirk Cousins is bad on primetime historically but they forced him to post one of his career worst epa/play performances. Wentz entered week 3 11th in epa/play and they held the Commanders offense to the 2nd worst dropback epa/play on the week. What has impressed me most about last week’s performance is that it’s not like they lived off turnovers which are normally highly variable and tough to depend on. They just flat out shut them down holding them to 3.2 yards per play on the game.
  • Eagles sacked Wentz 9 times and pressured him on over 40% of his dropbacks. Lawrence should be able to avoid taking all those sacks and handle the pressure better overall.
  • I tend to lean towards JAX getting +7 as the area of the field where Philly has been vulnerable has been the slot. PHI ranked bottom-5 in DVOA allowed to the slot in 2021 so this may be a matchup that JAX could exploit.
  • I am likely avoiding this game for now as I could see it going many different ways.

ATS Pick: JAX +7

Bills @ Ravens (+3.5, 51.5)

  • Bills loss to MIA last week was very flukey and I am not concerned with their offense at all. Their defense is down a ton of key starters in the secondary but the key guys who will be tasked with shutting down this BAL run game should be in for this one. This BUF front-7 currently ranks 2nd in the NFL in adjusted line yards and they will be going up against a BAL OL that ranks 28th in ALY. The Ravens lost Patrick Mekari to an ankle injury in week 3 so now they are down to a 4th string LT. This is not ideal when are going up against probably the best front-7 in the league.
  • Another edge for BUF is the ability to put LB Matt Milano on Nickelback Taron Johnson on Mark Andrews. Milano currently leads the NFL in coverage grade at his position (90.9). Andrews has been the most explosive TE through 3 weeks but the Bills certainly have the talent in the middle of the field to limit him.
  • Rookie Ka’ir Elam played well in what was essentially his debut in week 3. In 25 coverage snaps he allowed just 2 receptions for 10 yards total. Even if Poyer doesn’t return the Bills should survive outside against a much weaker Ravens WR corps than what they have faced so far in the season. It also helps that the defense played just 39 snaps in MIA so they should all be well-rested and ready to go.
  • NE blitzed lamar on 38.2% of his dropbacks and he cooked them going 11-12 for 4 touchdowns and 0.98 epa/db. This is not how BUF will approach him and they should be able to slow him down if they can pressure with 4.
  • Bills have OL injuries but Allen was the best QB at handling pressure in the NFL last season so it’s not as big of an issue as it would be with other QBs. We saw Mac Jones make tons of plays with his feet last week and he is essentially a statue compared to Allen.
  • Similar to MIA, this BAL team has traditionally been blitz and man-heavy which are both recipes for disaster vs Allen in my opinion. BUF offensive skill position players are fully healthy so they should be able to take advantage of a BAL defense that just allowed 26 points to the Matt Patricia NE offense.
  • Strong lean BUF but not a play until I can get a -3 at -110 juice or better.

ATS Pick: BUF -3.5

BET: BUF -3

Bears @ Giants (-3, 39.5)

  • My NYG have started 2-1 but I’d be lying if I told you I have loved what I have seen from efficiency wise. The bull case for the NYG entering 2022 was always the fact that they had the league’s easiest schedule and that has not changed as they prepare to host the lowly Bears.
  • CHI is way below the league in terms of pass-rate over expectation. They are throwing the ball on 40.9% of their plays which is -19.0% pass rate below expectation. This benefits the Giants as the weakness of their team is their secondary. CHI has shown no ability nor willingness to attack teams through the air so the Giants secondary likely won’t get exposed in this one.
  • CHI defense ranks 13th on epa/play on the season but they have yet to play an above-average offense in my opinion because the 49ers wk1 game took place in a monsoon. NYG is certainly not a good offense but they match up well with what CHI has struggled with. CHI ranks 29th in success rate against the run and the NYG offense ranks 7th in rush epa. Saquon should be able to have a decent day.
  • No play for me on this one.

ATS Pick: NYG -3

Commanders @ Cowboys (-3, 41)

  • I love this spot for the commanders who get to play the Cowboys on short rest and I just like the way they matchup here. DAL wants to run the ball with Pollard and Zeke to keep cooper rush in manageable situations but WAS ranks #2 in the NFL in rush success rate. WAS started the season at slow defending the run but they also have played 3 straight elite OLs. This DAL OL isn’t the unit it once was and I think WAS will shut down this run game.
  • On offense WAS should be able to take advantage of a weak DAL secondary. Diggs is a good #1 CB but the depth behind him is lacking. If they can protect Wentz he should be able to carve up this defense. Demarcus Lawrence was injured during the NYG game and had to leave the game. If he is hurt or limited it would enable them to slide protection and or double Parsons on the opposite edge. DAL doesn’t really have any elite interior DL that will threaten the 3rd-string C WAS might have to start.
  • This WAS secondary is not great but we have to also account for the fact that they have played 3 straight offenses that currently rank top-12 in dropback epa and top-8 in overall epa/play. Now they finally get a breakn against Cooper Rush and a DAL offense that currently ranks 26th in dropback epa. DAL has one some close one score games the past 2 weeks but has yet to look truly impressive on the offensive side of the ball and I think that we are likely underrating this WAS defense due to the quality of opponent they have played thus far.  
  • This WAS defense was quietly top-3 in rush epa and rush success rate vs a very good PHI run game. They finished 21st in dropback epa but 13th in dropback success rate. They gave up a few explosive plays but after that they buckled down and contained an explosive offensive team. Cooper Rush and DAL don’t have the ability to hit these explosives in my opinion and WAS will dominate on this side of the ball.

BET: WAS (+3.5)

ATS Pick: WAS (+3.5)

Jets @ Steelers (-3.5, 40.5)

  • I am backing the Jets here and what should be Zach Wilson’s sophomore debut. The Jets got torched by the Bengals last week but I have been impressed with their Run D and have absolutely 0 faith in the Steelers designing a gameplan to attack the Jets secondary. NYJ allowed 27 to CIN in wk3 but if you actually watched the game you saw rookie Sauce Gardner and CB DJ Reed somewhat surviving outside vs Chase and Higgins. Both guys had a number of impressive pass-breakups and on the season they both rank top-30 in coverage grade. I have faith that these guys can do their job vs a much weaker PIT passing attack and I also have faith in this NYJ run defense.
  • NYJ run defense currently ranks 13th in DVOA and 12th in EPA. It’s not the greatest unit ever but it should be fine against a weaker PIT OL.
  • NYJ finally get to face a weaker secondary as the 3 other AFC North teams all have top-15 secondary units in my opinion. This PIT team currently ranks 11th in PFF coverage grade, 12th in pass DVOA, and 9th in epa but who have they really played? They had an impressive performance vs Burrow but that was mostly to the credit of TJ Watt who is no longer present. Since then they have lost a game to Mac Jones and they let Jacoby Brissett hang 29 on them in 25 MPH wind conditions. It’s easy to say the NYJ are no better but when you actually look at the talent this will be the most talented skill position group that PIT has faced since week 1 and now they have no TJ Watt. As long as Zach Wilson can be closer to late rookie season Wilson than early rookie season Wilson then I think the Jets hang here and have a chance to win this one on the road.

BET: NYJ +3.5

ATS Pick: NYJ +3.5

Seahawks @ Lions (-4.5, 50)

  • It’s funny to see a matchup of two bottom-10 QBs have one of the highest totals on the slate but that’s what happens when you have two defenses that are this horrible matched up against each other.
  • This SEA defensive scheme fits what Goff likes to do perfectly as they are content to drop back in zone and allow checkdowns for the entire game. Goff should have no issue hitting Swift, Hockenson, and St. Brown on short to intermediate routes all game.
  • The matchup for the SEA offense is a little bit harder given the emergence of CB Jeff Okudah as a legit player. Okudah is rangey and physical and he is the perfect type of corner to defend Metcalf out wide. This DET run d has steadily improved from its dreadful performance to begin the season against the Eagles. They still rank dead-last in rushing success rate so it is possible that SEA has some success on the ground.
  • I’d stay away from this one but I do lean under 50.5 as I think these offenses are garnering a little too much respect. St. Brown is likely out for DET and that would leave them without their two best skill position players as RB Deandre Swift is also likely out for this one.

ATS Pick: DET -4.5

Chargers @ Texans (-4.5, 44.5)

  • Upon first glance this line feels like a gift to me. I’m fully aware of the Bosa, Slater, Linsley injuries but Keenan Allen should be returning to the lineup and as long as Herbert is able to play I don’t see any reason this line should be under a touchdown. Even if we get Chase Daniel, the coaching mismatch between Staley and Lovie Smith is so massive that I will likely be a Chargers backer here.
  • This HOU defense is only inside the top-15 in epa/play because of they have played two bottom-5 pass offenses in IND and CHI. LAC has all their weapons at WR, TE, and RB outside of Jalen Guyton and should be able to expose this HOU defense.
  • LAC defense still talented enough to shut down this HOU offense.
  • We are getting a pre-season top-5 superbowl contender at an extremely discounted price due to all these injuries and a flukey week 2 loss. There is a different scenario where this line is up around -14 but I understand with all of the injuries that this game is now much closer. Even still I think that LAC should be up around -6.5/-7 so being able to lay -4.5 here feels like a steal. I’ll wait to Herbert is officially cleared to play but if he is ruled in I’ll be firing on anything under a touchdown spread.

ATS Pick: LAC -4.5

Browns @ Falcons (-1.5, 49.5)

  • The big news we’ll be waiting on in this one is the status of DE Myles Garrett who totaled his car on Monday. Early reports are that he has no serious injuries but will have to monitor as he is obviously one of the most impactful defenders in the NFL.
  • Even if Garrett isn’t good to go I like how this CLE defense matches up here due to their familiarity with what Arthur Smith is trying to do on offense. ATL’s zone-run/bootleg heavy scheme is very similar to what Stefanski runs on offense in CLE and this defense should be extremely comfortable defending it.
  • Mariota had a 16.65 yard ADOT in week 3 but he won’t be able to rip the ball downfield like that against a more talented Browns secondary. The Browns have had some coverage miscommunications early in the season but I still believe that this secondary is a top-10 unit. Browns will force Mariota to check down far more often and have JOK to matchup with Pitts and Ward to cover London. The loss of Anthony Walker for the season is certainly huge as he was top-10 in coverage grade amongst LBs to start the season.
  • Both OL’s should have an advantage as the Falcons OL currently lead the league in adjusted line yards while the CLE DL is 29th in ALY. CLE OL is lead the league in ALY and is currently ranked 12th going up against an ATL front-7 that ranks 27th. Chubb and Hunt should be able to dominate the entire game especially considering they come into this one with 3 extra days of rest.
  • CLE run offense is clearly special as they have made all 3 of their opponents look silly trying to defend the run. NYJ, CAR, and PIT all rank top-17 in run defense DVOA and CLE still dominated. ATL currently dead-last in rush epa!!! And 27th in DVOA. CLE has a massive edge on offense in my opinion as the Falcons defensive strength lies with their outside CBs but this is not really where CLE attacks. CLE will run all over this front-7 and attack this weak LB and safety corps with their TEs.
  • No lean on this one on total or side until I know the status of Myles Garrett.

ATS Pick: CLE -1.5

Titans @ Colts (-3.5, 42.5)

  • This will be the battle of two fraudulent AFC South divisional rivals and is tough to pick a side here for me. The Colts did nothing to impress me in their victory over the Chiefs outside of Gus Bradley’s willingness to play cover 4 at a high rate. They lucked into win due to Chief’s mistakes including a muffed punt that essentially handed them 7 of their 20 points.
  • The Titans have a talented young secondary when Kristian Fulton is healthy but they have struggled against the run to begin the season. Titans rank 30th in rush epa so far and that is a bit concerning they have played a fairly easy schedule of opposing rush attacks. By rush DVOA they have played NYG (12th), BUF (32nd), and LV (23rd). Titans do rank 14th in success rate so the problem has been their proclivity to allow explosives.
  • Comparing the schedule IND has faced is worthwhile because their offense is obviously predicated around RB Jonathan Taylor rushing the ball efficiently. The colts ran the ball efficiently against HOU but were basically game-scripted out of their ability to run consistently. By Rush DVOA; they then faced JAX (1st) and KC (6th), both these teams also front-7 rank top-6 in adjusted line yards. TEN will be the easiest run defense they have faced since week 1 and I expect them to run it effectively if they can keep the game within one score.
  • TEN likes to play dime and keep the box light as they ranked 3rd in light box rate in 2021. This is a recipe for disaster against this IND team.
  • IND front-7 currently ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards, 2nd in rush DVOA, and 3rd in rush epa despite missing their star ILB Darius Leonard. Derrick Henry was decent last week but I’m not going to use one week to discredit what everyone has seen in the vast majority of games since the Lisfranc injury, Henry is not the same player as he once was. Even last week he only averaged 4.2 ypc. I expect IND to shut him down and force Tannehill to beat them with through the air. We saw in the BUF game once again that we  can never rely on the Titans to adapt their game plan to be pass-heavy in the face of a stout run defense so expect TEN to spam their inefficient runs all game.
  • Tannehill is better than Ryan at this point in his career but I trust the IND offense to be able to run the ball more efficiently than TEN so that has me leaning IND -3.5.

ATS Pick: IND -3.5

Cardinals @ Panthers (-2, 42.5)

  • Both of these teams are 1-2 but CAR has been the more efficient team and could easily be 2-1 while ARI should truly be 0-3. CAR is 18th in DVOA while ARI is 31st.
  • This will be the best QB CAR has faced thus far but I think they matchup decently well. ARI currently only has 1 WR graded above 70 in receiving grade in Marquise Brown. CAR has CB Jaycee Horn to match up with him out wide and Horn has continued his stellar play from 2021 and currently ranks 7th in coverage amongst all CBs in the NFL.
  • On offense CAR should be able to hit some more explosive runs as I believe this ARI run defense is overrated. ARI run d currently ranks 15th in epa and 18th in success rate but they have literally not played a single offense that ranks above average in rush epa. Their front-7 ranks 18th in adjusted line yards despite playing a weak schedule of opposing OLs (LV, LAR). Now they have to go up against a CAR offense that ranks 6th in line yards and top-3 in both rush epa and success rate. This is huge CMC week in my opinion.
  • Even if ARI run defense is legit it doesn’t take away from the fact that their secondary is awful and Baker Mayfield should finally be able to have some success here. ARI pass defense ranks 31st in both DVOA and EPA. Byron Murphy Jr. has been their best corner and he has a lowly 54.4 coverage grade, good for 80th amongst CBs over at PFF. Murphy Jr is more of a slot guy anyway so DJ Moore and Anderson should feast on whoever lines up against them out wide.
  • Another thing I like about CAR in this game is that it felt like they found some answers on offense against NO in week 3. They schemed up a nice 67 yard receiving touchdown to Laviska Shenault and they involved speedy Shi Smith a bit more. This team was a sleeper heading into 2022 and if they can start getting somewhat competent play from Baker Mayfield the NFC South is up for grabs in my opinion. There is no better spot for Baker to get going than against this ARI secondary so I’m going to trust him here in week 4.

BET: Panthers -2

ATS Pick: CAR -2

Patriots @ Packers (-10, 40.5)

  • Obviously Mac Jones is out for a few weeks so QB2 Brian Hoyer will be starting his first game since 2019. Not exactly ideal when you are going up against an extremely talented GB secondary and pass defense. GB D currently ranks 8th in dropback epa/play and 2nd in success rate. The weakness of this GB defense has been their run d for many years and it has continued to plague them to start 2022 as they currently rank dead-last in rush DVOA. NE currently ranks 1st in rush dvoa offense so this is obviously a massive edge for NE.
  • Despite the on paper rushing edge for NE it is tough for me to back them with Hoyer at the helm and you’d have to expect that GB aggressively stacks the box to force Hoyer to beat them through the air. I still lean NE +10.5 but probably not going to have any money on them.

ATS Pick: NE +10.5

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5, 45.5)

  • If you were a believer in the Raiders entering 2022 this is a spot you have to back them as you are getting tremendous value on them at less than a FG against a division-rival that came into the season almost even in win total and projection. Raiders have gone 0-3 ATS and 0-3 SU to start 2022. I was not a person who believed in LV entering 2022 because I watched them consistently throughout 2021 and knew how truly fraudulent their playoff berth was. From my week 1 preview, “It was one of the biggest over-achieving seasons ever as only 3 other teams have made the playoffs with a point differential of (-65) in NFL history. They tied the record for OT wins in NFL history going 4-0 in OT. They went 7-2 in one score games. They finished 7th in fumble luck and 8th in field goal luck. It was objectively one of the luckiest seasons ever”.
  • On paper this looks like a tough matchup for this pass-heavy Raiders team as they face a DEN pass defense that ranks top-6 in epa, dvoa, and success rate but when you consider they’ve played a schedule of weak pass offenses; SEA (12th), SF (19th), and HOU (29th) I think it’s likely that this DEN defense is a bit overrated. I think this fully healthy WR trio of Adams, Renfrow, and Waller should have a bit more success at home on Sunday.
  • I was low on this LV team because the secondary is weak and the OL sucks. I expect DEN to finally look like the offense we projected them to be when they paid Russell Wilson upwards of $200 million this offseason. This is a bottom-10 pass defense by most metrics and they simply don’t have matchup well outside with Jeudy and Sutton.
  • Raiders defense ranks 23rd in pass dvoa and 29th in epa despite playing a fairly light schedule of opposing passing attacks. Herbert and Murray are both talented guys but Herbert lost Keenan Allen midway through the game and Murray has little to no skill-position talent around him currently. The Titans are a bottom-5 receiving corps and even they lit them up. LV ranks 25th in team coverage grade at PFF and they really have no one notable outside to match up effectively with Sutton or Jeudy.
  • With both of these teams having strong run defenses I lean over 45.5 in what should be a more pass-heavy game.

ATS Pick: LV -2.5

Chiefs @ Buccaneers (-1, 44.5)

  • I personally feel don’t understand why the Chiefs are only -1 here on the road. The media narrative will be all about the 2020 super bowl blowout but this is clearly not the same TB team that we saw in 2020. The defense is still very elite but a big reason they were able to shut down Mahomes was due to all the KC OL injuries in that game. KC was down multiple starters on their OL and TB had a more formidable pass-rush back then with JPP, Vea, and Barrett all playing at their peak. This TB team has not been generating the same pressure rate but they have been getting elite play from their secondary. Still, I tend to favor great offense beating great defense when they matchup and I still view this KC team as a great offense despite a flukey week 3 loss to the Colts.
  • This TB defense is slightly overrated after playing some weaker offenses to start the season. We can sit here and pretend that Rodgers, Dak, and Winston is a difficult 3 game schedule on paper but given the NO OL issues and the state of the GB WR room it is just simply not true. TB has yet to face a truly elite passing attack and should come back to earth against Mahomes here.
  • The key thing for me with this TB team is the lack of OL talent due to the departure of Marpet and the injury to Ryan Jensen and Donovan Smith. They still rank 10th in adjusted sack rate but it is clear that this is not the same unit that lead them to top offensive ranks the past few years. It is also very clear that 45-year old Brady is a complete statue who lacks any ability to handle pressure effectively. This guy is undeniably the GOAT but pretending he is anywhere near a top-10 QB currently is ludicrous given his current state. Even if Donovan Smith comes back and all the WRs are healthy I still expect this TB offense to struggle with pressure from Chris Jones in the interior. Even when all of these guys were healthy they only were able to hang 19 on an overrated Cowboys defense.
  • KC OL ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate in the NFL so they should be able to keep Mahomes clean.
  • This is not the same KC defense as 2 years ago and it is not the same OL. This is also not the same Mahomes who had never seen teams rush-4 and sit in shell coverage before. KC has learned a lot since that super bowl and now has lots of counters to this style of defense. Trust Mahomes to make the plays KC needs to make in order to outscore a weak Bucs offense.

BET: KC -1

ATS Pick: KC -1

Rams @ 49ers (-1.5, 42)

  • We get an NFC championship rematch on MNF this week. I was on SF every playoff game last year including in this matchup where they covered my +4 but lost outright. They likely would have won the game if Kyle Shanahan had been more aggressive on 4th and 2 from the Rams 43 in the 4th quarter. A crucial dropped pick by S Jaquiski Tartt also ended up leading to a game-winning Rams TD drive.
  • These teams are now fairly similar to the teams that matched up against each other last year as Jimmy G is back at the starting QB helm.
  • The Rams have yet to impress me in any of their 3 games. They rank just 19th in offensive epa/play, 14th in defensive epa, and Stafford ranks 13th in epa/CPOE composite. Keep in mind that outside of the Bills, they have played both their games against bottom-10 NFL teams (ARI, ATL) so these #s are may be slightly inflated. The Bills are elite defensively and they shut the Rams down but so are the 49ers and they have the same formula of rushing-4 while preventing deep balls to contain this Stafford/Kupp led attack. The 49ers are right behind the Bills in every defensive metric and are certainly more healthy than the Bills are right now.
  • The 49ers currently rank #1 in coverage grade on PFF. They are getting elite play from virtually everyone in their secondary including breakout safety Talanoa Hufanga.
  • The 49ers currently rank 23rd in offensive DVOA and 27th in epa/play. Jimmy G ranks 28th in CPOE through 1.5 weeks of play.
  • LT Trent Williams is a huge loss for what this 49ers team is trying to do. This OL was already significantly weaker than last year’s unit and now it is in danger territory of being a bottom-10 unit. Expect the 49ers to struggle to run the ball against a rams D that still ranks top-5 in run defense dvoa.
  • This game is going to come down to whether or not Jimmy G can be competent in my opinion. If he can avoid the back-breaking sacks and turnovers I think that they can move the ball on this Rams D and limit the Rams offense on the flip side of the ball but that is obviously a big if especially considering they are down their starting LT. I lean 49ers here but can’t play it given the state of the OL.