These fantasy writeups will aim to focus on DFS and players that are not obvious starts or obvious sits each week. For example, guys like Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp are obvious starts each week in traditional home leagues but I may right about their downside risk in the context of Daily Fantasy slates where you have to factor in a salary cap when pricing out your team. If I say something like “I would look to avoid Cooper Kupp or Stefon Diggs” like below in this first writeup I am not implying that these are guys you should be sitting in your traditional leagues, rather that these are guys I am not buying given the plethora of other cheaper/better options in a daily fantasy slate. Analytics Primer can be found here.

Bills @ Rams +2.5, 52.5
Ravens @ Jets +7, 44.5
Eagles @ Lions +4, 49
49ers @ Bears +7, 41.5
Colts @ Texans +8, 45.5 
Steelers @ Bengals -6.5, 44.5
Saints @ Falcons +5.5, 42.5
Browns @ Panthers -2.5, 41.5
Patriots @ Dolphins -3, 47
Jaguars @ Commanders -3, 44
Giants @ Titans -5.5, 43.5
Chiefs @ Cardinals +4.5, 53.5
Raiders @ Chargers -3.5, 52.5
Packers @ Vikings +1.5, 48
Buccaneers @ Cowboys +1.5, 50.5 
Broncos @ Seahawks +6.5, 42

Bills @ Rams (+2.5, 53.5)

  • Would look to avoid Cooper Kupp in DFS week due how dominant the Bills are against slot WRs. #1 DVOA defense against the slot last year by a significant margin. Also the 2nd best explosive play pass defense last year. Hyde and Poyer are a top-3 safety duo in the NFL and the Bills were the only team to not allow a single “deep touchdown” (20+ yards) in 2021. Kupp might draw the Tre-davious white matchup more often than Robinson.
  • Allen Robinson would be who I would look to on the Rams for DFS as I think he is more likely to be consistently matched up with rookie CB Kair Elam. Have to expect that Mcvay will also have some stuff schemed up to get his confidence going early after an off year last season with the Bears.
  • On the Bills side of the ball I would look to avoid Diggs and instead look at guys like slot-WR Isiah Mckenzie, and maybe #2 WR Gabe Davis. Allen ranked 2nd in the NFL in targets to non #1/#2 WRs in 2021 and you would have to expect that trend to continue here in week 1 as Diggs likely draws the difficult Jalen Ramsey matchup.

Ravens @ Jets (+7, 45)

  • Look for the Ravens RBs to perform well here. Assuming RB JK Dobbins gets a full workload he should be able to perform well against this Jets front-7. Won’t have any carry competition early in season as Gus Edwards is still injured and backup Mike Davis is uninspiring as he ranked 50th out of 52 qualified runners in PFFs running grade in 2021 with the Falcons.
  • Mark Andrews could also be a play as the Jets were horrible defending TEs in 2021 and the Ravens have literally 0 other established pass-catchers entering the 2022 season. Jets were 31st in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021.
  • Downgrading the Jets pass catchers a little bit due to Zach Wilson’s injury but Flacco should be serviceable if Jets OL can keep him clean in the pocket. Difficult matchup but would still prefer to target the Jets receiver room given that I expect Breece Hall and Michael Carter to be close to a 50/50 snap split early in the year. Ravens should also be a good run defense once again as they ranked 4th in run DVOA last year despite being the 2nd most injured defense in the NFL.
  • Elijah Moore for the Jets is going to break-out this season after ranking top-15 in success rate vs both man and zone coverage in 2021. Success rate vs man has historically been a great predictor for future fantasy success. Keep in mind that he performed at that level as a rookie so the sky is the limit for Moore. Also highly likely that we see the Ravens resort to their aggressive man-coverage approach with CB Marcus Peters returning alongside stud CB Marlon Humphrey. Moore has shown he can win against man and the Jets will likely be pass-heavy in this game given game script and rushing inefficiency.

Jaguars @ Commanders (-3.5, 44)

  • Terry Mclaurin should be able to consistently win against whoever is attempting to cover him. JAX finished 2021, 29th in DVOA vs WRs lined up out wide and 32st against #1 WRs so there is no reason to believe anyone on JAX shuts him down even with the additions of CB Darious Williams in the offseason.
  • JAX D was 6th in explosive run rank allowed last year so I would avoid the WAS RBs given that the WAS RB room is likely going to be a 3-way committee of Gibson, Mckissic, and Robinson anyway. Update: With Brian Robinson being out due to injury (bullet wounds), Antonio Gibson should have a clear run-way to being the primary early-down back but I would still be wary of targeting Mckissic or Gibson against this JAX D that ranked 2nd best in DVOA allowed to RBs through the air in 2021 (-21.1%).
  • Target WR Christian Kirk as the clear #1 WR in this offense. WAS ranked 29th in DVOA allowed to slot in 2021 and Kirk ran 80% of his routes out of the slot in 2021. Kirk will also benefit from a Doug Pederson offense that uses lots of RPOs and quick-reads to get the ball out quickly on short routes.
  • RB Travis Etienne could be an interesting high upside start at just $5600 on DK as this WAS defense is completely devoid of good cover LBs and safeties. Etienne is a good pass-catcher and route runner and he will likely play close to 85-90% of snaps with RB James Robinson still not fully back from his achilles injury.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Lions (+4, 49)

  • RB Myles Sanders is a fairly obvious play given how much the Eagles dominated the Lions on the ground in 2021 but I would temper expectations a little bit this time around. The Eagles ran for 236 rushing yards and 5.1 YPC and had an insane 85% success rate on runs out of 12 personnel vs the Lions in 2021. Despite last year’s success I would expect the run defense of the Lions to be much improved in this matchup given their addition of stud DE Aidan Hutchison. Eagles should still find success as the Lions front-7 is a weak unit but don’t expect another 200 rushing yard + outburst here.
  • Everyone is going to be rushing to plug-in new star WR AJ Brown into their week 1 DFS lineups against this awful Lions pass defense but I actually prefer the Eagles secondary receiving options in this matchup. I believe AJ Brown will have success with the Eagles but I actually like the way the Lions corners matchup with him. Former 3rd overall pick CB Jeff Okudah is back from injury and at 6’1 203 LBs he is the exact type of long-rangy physical/press corner archetype that can give a big, physical, receiver like AJ Brown some trouble. The Lions other CB, Amani Oruwariye is built similarly at 6’2. Not implying that AJ Brown gets shut down by any means but in this matchup I prefer to target Goedert or Smith.
  • TE Dallas Goedert should absolutely ball against this Lions defense that ranked 29th in DVOA allowed to TEs and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed to TEs in 2021. The Lions added no one meaningful at LB or safety to expect these rankings to improve and now Goedert has 0 competition for targets with Zach Ertz in Arizona.
  • WR Devonta Smith would be my preferred WR option over AJ Brown as he ranked 11th best vs zone coverage last season with an 82.7% success rate vs zone, per Reception Perception. Brown ranked 34th and as mentioned earlier I think he will draw the difficult Okudah matchup. Anecdotally, it feels like people are sleeping on the Slim Reaper following the addition of AJ from the Titans. Smith was elite at getting open as a rookie last year but his counting stats weren’t as high as a guy like Jamarr Chase or Waddle due to the Eagles low pass-rate. The Eagles finished the year dead-last (32nd) in pass-rate but you have to expect that to increase with the addition of Brown and further progression from QB Jalen Hurts.
  • Jalen Hurts rushed for 71 yards against the Lions on just 7 attempts last year, but he only completed 9 passes for 103 yards and 0 touchdowns due to the game being a blow-out and their rushing success. I would tamper expectations a little bit for Hurts rushing upside given the addition of Hutchison at edge for the Lions. Hutchison has already shown that he is an elite athlete, but he is also shown that he is disciplined in his assignments and will probably be good at containing Hurts within the pocket. Hurts is still an obvious start in traditional leagues, but I am not going to target him in DFS for week 1.
  • I would fade QB Jared Goff as his upside is likely limited due to just how talented this Eagles defense projects to be. The Eagles already ranked #1 in explosive pass rate allowed on defense last year and now they have added CB James Bradberry, LB Kyzir White and Nakobe Dean, and S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to the unit. Goff has gotten receiver upgrades in the form of DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams but fundamentally he still has a noodle arm and I wouldn’t expect him to perform well here with rookie Williams still out with injury.  
  • Fade RBs Deandre Swift and Jamaal Williams in this one. The Eagles OL ranked 4th in Adjusted line yards in 2021, while the Lions DL finished 30th in ALY. DET gets back stud C Frank Ragnow but the Eagles added freak DT Jordan Davis in the first round and they return DE Brandon Graham from injury this season. Between Davis, Fletcher Cox, and Hargrave I would temper expectations on the Lions having any sort of rushing success in this matchup. Williams and Swift were both bottom 20th percentile in rushing yards over expectation and the Lions ranked 30th in EPA/att on rushes within the first 3 quarters of the game in 2021.
  • WR DJ Chark will likely draw CB Darius Slay in pass-coverage so I will be avoiding him here. Slay was the 4th  highest graded CB in the NFL last year. PHI played 6th highest rate of zone and Chark ranked just about dead-last in success rate against zone in 2021, he was literally in the 1st percentile with a 60.6% success rate vs zone.
  • WR Amon Ra St-Brown should find more success in the middle of the field as he was dominant to finish 2021 and will draw an easier matchup in either CB Avonte Maddox or James Bradberry. St-Brown ran about 70% of his snaps in the slot last year. Maddox was 18th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap and 20th in coverage grade in 2021 so he is by no means a slouch. St-Brown is very good against zone, 80.6% success rate (65th percentile) and should be able to find more success in the short area of the field than a guy like Chark. PHI played the 6th highest rate of zone in 2021 and was 28th in DVOA allowed to slot WRs in 2021, so expect St-Brown to have some success.
  • TE TJ Hockenson played well in this matchup last year catching 10 passes for 89 yards. The Eagles were awful defending TEs in 2021(27th)  but have added LB Kyzir White and rookie Nakobe Dean to improve their coverage. White as 10th in yards allowed per coverage snap amongst linebackers in 2021.

Browns @ Panthers (-2.5, 41.5)

  • I am high on RB Christian McCaffrey for the 2022 season but am a little bit lower on him against this solid Browns defense. Cleveland was poor against the run overall in 2021 (28th in EPA, and 23rd in DVOA), but they still were fairly good at preventing explosive runs ranking 9th in explosive run rate allowed. Admittedly, they didn’t really improve the middle of their defense but I still am a little lower on McCaffrey than consensus here as the Browns were a top-5 unit at defending RB passes in 2021. If CMC isn’t ripping off explosive runs and he isn’t a factor in the receiving game than he likely isn’t going to produce at the level necessary to justify his salary of $8500.
  • RB Nick Chubb should be able to rip-off some big runs against a CAR defense that ranked 27th in explosive run rate in 2021. The Browns OL was #1 in Adjusted Line Yards created and return 4/5 starters. What worries me with Chubb is the fact that as of this writing the Browns also have Kareem Hunt and D’ernest Johnson on the roster. All 3 RBs finished inside the top 10 in yards after contact in 2021. Chubb also may be keyed in on with Brissett at QB and the lack of proven receiving options for CLE. Chubb is still the clear #1 in the backfield but at $6500 it is not my favorite play in the week 1 slate.
  • WR DJ Moore should command an extremely large (30+ % target share) this year in a Carolina offense devoid of WR talent behind him, but this will likely be a difficult matchup for him as he draws a CLE secondary which is probably a top-5 secondary in the NFL. He will likely have Denzel Ward shadowing him, Ward has ranked top-15 in coverage grade in back to back seasons and there is no shortage of depth behind him as  Greg Newsome and Greedy Williams are also very good corners. Another thing working against Moore here is the familiarity this defense has with QB Baker Mayfield. Cleveland should be able to throw Mayfield off as they know all of his tendencies and this defense has had thousands of reps against him over the past few years.
  • Carolina played man at a top 10 rate in 2021 and WR Amari Cooper will likely draw CB Jaycee Horn often in this matchup. Horn is young and coming off an injury but prior to injury in week 4, he lead all CBs in success rate, yards per target, and YAC allowed, as a rookie through 3 weeks. Cooper is the clear #1 option in CLE but he is declining as he ranked just 26th percentile in success rate vs man coverage in 2021. I would probably avoid him in DFS at his price point of $5900 in what projects to be a slower paced game with the total sitting at just 41.5.
  • TE David Njoku is going to have a great year as he will be paired with QB Jacoby Brissett for 11 weeks until Deshaun Watson returns. Brissett is an obvious downgrade from Watson but only 2 QBs have targeted TEs more than Brissett over the last 3 years. Brissett loves to target TEs and Njoku should see plenty of opportunities in this Cleveland offense that loves to use 12 and 13 personnel.

49ers @ Bears (+7, 41.5)

  • QB Justin Fields broke out in this matchup last year; rushing for 103 yards on just 10 attempts. He only threw for 175 passing yards and threw a bad pick in the 4th quarter, but now he gets a massive coaching upgrade in HC Luke Getsy who is coming over from a GB passing offense that helped produce back-to-back MVP seasons from Aaron Rodgers. We should expect Fields to be much more efficient in 2022, but it is hard to expect him to dominate here in week 1 against this stout 49ers defense that will be fully healthy this time around. The 49ers also added CB Charvarius Ward and the Bears have lost their #1 WR Allen Robinson. Fields doesn’t have the talent around him to succeed against a defense this talented.
  • I would avoid TE Cole Kmet as he will likely draw the Fred Warner matchup frequently. SF ranked 5th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021 and there is little reason to expect them to regress.
  • WR Darnell Mooney is the best target of the Bears receiving options as he has proven he is explosive and the 49ers struggled to cover WR 1s last year finishing 30th in DVOA allowed to WR1s. Mooney should be around a 30% target share consistently this season given the lack of proven options after him and his chemistry with Fields.
  • On the 49ers side of the ball there is really no bad options as this Chicago Bears defense projects to be horrible with the departures of Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack, and DT Eddie Goldman. I would target WR Brandon Aiyuk given the purported chemistry between him and QB Trey Lance, and the complete lack of CB talent on the Bears. Aiyuk is an elite route-runner who thrives on deep routes but was often unable to get the ball due to Garappolo’s limitations. Lance has no limitations and I think we can expect to see Shanahan challenge this young defense early in this game and Aiyuk will be the likely beneficiary. Aiyuk is the guy who most consistently lines up in the X or flanker receiver spots and this Chicago defense ranked 30th in DVOA allowed to receivers lined up out wide. At just $5200 on DK he is one of my favorite plays in Week 1.
  • At $6000 on DK, QB Trey Lance is being priced as the QB9 but I think he has highly likely to exceed that. CHI ranked 14th in pressure rate but lost both of their key DL in Mack and Hicks in the offseason. Lance should have all day to throw the ball and will likely have the athleticism to make some plays on the ground against this weak Bears front-7. Lance is likely the safest way to fade this awful Bears defense without having to try and guess which skill position player is going to go off. I know it sounds weird to call a first-year starter a safe play but that is how much respect I have for Shanahan’s system and how little I respect this Chicago defense.

Colts @ Texans (+7, 45)

  • Jonathan Taylor is the highest priced RB on the slate for good reason as the game script will likely favor him in this game. He’s going up against a defense that ranked 30th in explosive run rate in 2021, and bottom-10 in rush EPA. The Texans did add a ton of veteran D-lineman but they shouldn’t make a meaningful enough difference to prevent you from playing Taylor confidently.
  • Dameon Pierce has been getting a ton of buzz over the past few weeks and rightfully so. It was fairly obvious that he is a more explosive/dynamic runner than Rex Burkhead at this point in his career. Pierce definitely is an upgrade and will have a solid season but we can’t back him here in this matchup vs a Colts front-7 that has been consistently dominant against the run over the past few years. The Colts were 3rd in Run DVOA last year and 9th in 2020. They also added Yanick Ngakou to their front-7 to further bolster it this offseason. This Texans OL ranked dead-last in adjusted line yards and dead-last in explosive run rate in 2021. Pierce should help them improve on that explosive run rate ranking but this OL didn’t get meaningfully better enough in the offseason to expect them to bully this Colts front-7.
  • Michael Pittman should have his way with whoever the Texans throw at him. Sure, Derek Stingley has potential but rookie CBs almost never perform well in this first season and Pittman is an elite #1 WR with a meaningful 4 inch size advantage. Pittman put up 5.8 and 17 points with 0 TDs in 2 games vs the Texans last season.
  • Alec Pierce is just a rookie but should slot right into the #2 WR role with Parris Campbell as his only competition. HOU struggled against WRs lined up out wide finishing 31st in DVOA in 2021. This is good news for Pierce as he lined up outside on over 75% of his snaps in Cincinatti. Priced at just $3900 on DK I think Pierce is a nice dart throw for larger fields/pools.
  • Mo-Allie Cox is priced as the TE21 on DK at $3400. It would not surprise me at all if Cox exceeded his ranking against a HOU defense that ranked dead-last in DVOA vs TEs last year.
  • Brandin Cooks is Davis Mills favorite target but he is priced as the WR11 at DK and I think that is about right and will not be playing him in any lineups as he will probably have one of Gilmore or Kenny Moore shadowing him all game.
  • Nico Collins is the WR I would take a shot on in this matchup. Collins is entering his 2nd year but posted relatively decent success rates vs man and press coverage in 2021 and looked pretty good in the pre-season. He is priced near the minimum on DK at $4200.

Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5, 45)

  • Joe Burrow was unable to reach 200 passing yards in either matchup vs the Steelers last year. He did toss 3 touchdowns in the Week 3 matchup. Obviously the PIT pass-rush is their strength but Burrow was only sacked twice throughout both games. I also think the PIT pass-rush is a little overrated coming off a season where they ranked just 17th in pressure rate but 2nd in adjusted sack rate. These tend to regress towards each other and the Steelers may be due for some regression. Burrow isn’t the worst play priced at just $6400 and as the QB7 on DK.
  • Mitch Trubisky is priced at just $5000 on DK and while this is objectively appropriate I think he represents a decent contrarian play if you want to build a lineup that no one else is building. This CIN defense was 25th in explosive pass-rank and didn’t really add anyone outside of rookies in the offseason. Trubisky is being slightly underrated in general as we head into the season and he represents a massive upgrade over Ben Roethlisberger in my mind. The PIT offense should use a lot more play-action and movement, ultimately making it more explosive/dynamic. Stacking Trubisky with either Freirmuth or Pickens makes a lot of sense to me as a contrarian play.
  • Joe Mixon was the one who tore this team up last year going for 255 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns total. Mixon was a non-factor in the passing game catching 5 passes for just 2 total yards. Mixon’s dominance on the ground was not a surprise as the Steelers ranked 32nd in explosive run rate allowed last year. PIT added DT Larry Ogunjobi and Demarvin Leal in the offseason, as well as ILB Myles Jack to their front-7. I think the PIT run defense will regress and be much better in 2021 but I think that their LB corps leaves a lot to be desired and Mixon could have a higher receiving floor this year than he did last year. WE know Devin Bush sucks in coverage but Jack was a bottom 10 LB in coverage in 2021. Expect Mixon to win on some routes on Sunday but I can’t buy him at his RB7 price on DK.
  • Jamarr Chase cooked this team in the week 3 matchup going for 65 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns but went for just 3 receptions and 39 yards in the 2nd matchup. Chase is obviously elite but kind of lives off the deep-ball a little and is likely due for some regression this season after posting ridiculous rookie numbers. PIT added CB Levi Wallace in the offseason and have 3 solid coverage safeties in Minkah Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, and Damontae Kazee. Wallace was top-10 in the NFL in coverage yards allowed per snap in 2021. CB Akhello Witherspoon was the #6 highest graded coverage corner in the NFL in limited snaps last year. PIT was 5th in DVOA defense against #1 WR and they continued to invest in improving their defense in the offseason as they have the #1 most expensive defense in the NFL entering 2022. Ultimately I think PIT now has enough outside talent to limit Chase’s explosive plays and I would fade him in Week 1 as he is priced as the WR4 on DK.
  • Najee Harris only rushed for 63 yards on 22 carries vs CIN in 2021 but gets a few mild OL upgraded in C Mason Cole and RG James Daniels. PIT should be trailing in this game and the game-script should favor a pass-heavy approach so I could see Najee Harris producing in the receiving game. CIN allowed the 7th most targets to RBs in 2021 and Harris caught 17 receptions in 2 games vs CIN last year. I think Harris is priced a bit too low at $6400/RB12 and I can see him breaking off a few more explosive runs this an overrated CIN defense.
  • Pat Freirmuth is one of my favorite Week 1 plays vs a CIN defense that ranked bottom-10 in virtually every metric against TEs. He is priced as the TE10 at just $4200 and I can easily see him racking up 7-8 receptions in a favorable game script matchup here.

Patriots @ Dolphins (-3, 46)

  • WR Tyreek Hill should be able to dominate in the short to intermediate area of the field in this matchup. The Patriots have terrific safety depth in Mccourty, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, and Jabrill Peppers but their best/only proven CB is Jalen Mills and he graded out just 57th in PFF’s coverage grade in 2021. The Patriots played the 8th highest rate of man coverage in 2021 and if they continue that trend without JC Jackson they are going to get torched in 2022. If they switch to zone more frequently in this matchup I have faith that Tua will pick them apart.
  • WR Jaylen Waddle all of the same things can be said about Waddle but he isn’t nearly as good as Hill vs zone coverage yet in his career. Hill is 90th percentile and Waddle is just 43rd percentile vs zone.
  • RBs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert I will likely avoid as it may be more of a time-share/committee early in the season. NE D was 10th in Rush DVOA in 2021.
  • RB Rhamondre Stevenson appears to be trending towards being the RB1 in NE but I will be avoiding him early in the season as there is still so much depth and a high probability that he splits carries with Damien Harris/Pierre Strong. There is also some uncertainty with the NE OL following the trade of RG Shaq Mason.
  • Target TE Hunter Henry here as MIA ranked 30th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021. Henry put up 86 yards on just 5 receptions in the Week 18 matchup vs MIA in 2021.
  • Focusing on the Patriots WRs I would prefer to target Jakobi Meyers over Devante Parker. Parker has ranked dead-last in WR separation over the past few years and he will be going against a secondary which has practiced against him for years. They know all his tendencies and should be able to do a good job staying attached to him. Meyers has the ability to win downfield and those are the routes that MIA often loses on as this is very much a boom/bust defense.
  • At QB I would avoid Mac Jones and Tua in this one. There will be weeks where Tua is forced to pass the ball often and will have value, but this is not one of them against a Patriots team that ranked in the bottom-10 in pace in 2021 and will likely be even slower with Matt Patricia/Joe Judge running the offense. Tua could be hyper-efficient in this game and still not reach a QB1 performance due to the pace and his lack of rushing upside.

Saints @ Falcons (+5.5, 42.5)

  • Avoid all the Falcons RBs against this dominant Saints front-7. The Falcons ran for 34 yards on 25 carries in the first matchup in 2021 and then ran for 62 yards on 12 carries in the 2nd game vs NO. This team made no major additions to its OL to expect they will be able to move this Saints front-7 and win up front. Tyler Allgeier will likely eventually win the early down role but this is not a spot to buy him. The Falcons OL ranked 20th in ALY in 2021, while the Saints DL ranked 3rd in ALY.
  • TE Kyle Pitts should command close to 30% target share if not more for the entire season given the lack of talent behind surrounding him. Unfortunately this matchup may prove difficult for him as the Saints ranked 6th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021. They have two solid coverage LBs in Pete Werner (31st) and Demario Davis (9th) in PFF’s coverage grade last year. They also now have the Honey Badger, Tyrann Matthieu to matchup with TEs. Pitts may produce given the sheer amount of volume he is likely to see but I definitely wouldn’t call this the best matchup for him on paper. In 2 games vs the Saints last year he caught 5 catches for 70 yards.
  • Saints WR room is a bit difficult to project given the amount of turnover on the unit. They will be starting the trio of Mike Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry; all guys who were not on the team last season. Thomas is the clear WR1 but for this matchup I would steer clear in DFS formats. Thomas likely draws ATL CB AJ Terrell and AJ is a legit top-5 corner in the NFL already despite being just 23.
  • Jarvis Landry primarily operates in the short area of the field and so I won’t be targeting him in DFS as I don’t see him having explosive upside in this matchup.
  • Rookie Chris Olave is my preferred week 1 target for the Saints WR corps as he can win on those downfield routes and should have plenty of time to do so given the Falcons complete inability to generate any pressure. The falcons finished dead-last in pressure rate (18.20%) and let their best pass-rusher Dante Fowler leave in the offseason. This may be a historically bad defensive front-7 in 2022 and Jameis should have all day to throw. Olave is perhaps the most NFL ready WR prospect in his class and should have no issue torching this Falcons team.
  • Alvin Kamara ran for 200 yards on 43 carries in 2 games vs the Falcons last year. He also caught 6 passes for 72 yards. Ultimately he was only able to find the endzone once on the ground but obviously he was very productive overall. It looks as if he will not be suspended for now so he may be a decent Week 1 DFS target at just $7600.
  • I like rookie Drake London’s upside a lot this season but this is a difficult matchup for him. Saints will have one of Marshon Lattimore or stud sophomore Paulson Adebo on him at all times.

Giants @ Titans (-5.5, 43.5)

  • On paper this looks like a smash spot for Derrick Henry. Giants  rookie DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is likely out for this game and that leaves as essentially the same front-7 as last year. The Giants ranked 24th in explosive run rate and 31st in ALY on defense in 2021. Another thing boding well for Henry is the complete lack of proven WR talent on the Titans. Henry should continue to see a large workload coming off a year where the Titans ranked 1st in early down run rate and 3rd in overall run rate. There is some cause for concern with Henry is the fact that his explosive run rate and YPC have dropped for consecutive seasons and he is coming off of a foot fracture. Henry’s explosive run rate of 8% was good for 56th in the NFL amongst qualifying RBs in 2021. Henry was hit at the line on 46.6% of his carries according to Sports Info Solutions, which was the second-highest rate among the 18 running backs with at least 200 carries. With contact coming earlier, Henry had a much harder time breaking through it as his broken tackle rate dropped from 15.1% in 2020 to just 9.6% in 2021. Only one running back (Ezekiel Elliott) had a lower rate
  • Robert Woods is the WR1 in TEN this year but he is coming off a torn ACL in a season which he was struggling in even prior to the injury. He are his success rates by coverage in 2021.

60.2% vs Man (20th percentile)

77.1% vs Zone (37th percentile)

57.4% vs Press (21st percentile)

Couple that with a 10% drop rate and there is reason to be concerned this year. I would avoid Woods in this matchup as he will likely draw the attention of CB Adoree Jackson. Jackson was the 4th highest graded coverage corner in the NFL in 2021.

  • Treylon Burks would be who I would target as he is more likely to draw CB Cordale Flott, Darnay Holmes, or Aaron Robinson as his matchup. Both corners struggled in pre-season and overall this NYG secondary should be awful in 2022.
  • TE Austin Hooper is not the same player he used to be but he could be interesting in this matchup. At just $3600 on DK he is priced as the TE15 but he will be going up against a LB corps of Blake Martinez and Tae Crowder. Crowder was literally the lowest graded LB in the NFL in 2021 and Martinez is coming off an ACL injury and has never been a great coverage guy anyway.
  • Saquon Barkley should have every opportunity to get 75-80% of the carries early in the season but this is a tough matchup for him. Tennessee’s DL was top-10 in both ALY and DVOA against RB passes. TEN was also 3rd in explosive run rate allowed in 2021 and they return all of their key contributors to this front-7 outside of Jayon Brown/Rashaan Evans who were awful run defenders anyway. Barkley should have a better season behind a much better OL but I would be slightly more cautious against this TEN front-7 in Week 1. That being said him being priced at $6100 as the RB15 is a bit ridiculous and I think he could certainly exceed that as he should draw some favorable matchups in pass-coverage. ILB Zach Cunningham is an elite run defender but he is an absolute zero in coverage as he graded 71st out of 80 in coverage grade in 2021. When busted coverage from him and Saquon could clear his RB15 ranking. Another thing going for Saquon is the reality that the Titans played Dime (6 + DBs) at the 4th highest rate in the NFL last year. Having that many DBs on the field usually benefits RBs as DBs tend to struggle to tackle more so than LBs. Saquon has multiple paths to clear his RB15 ranking here.
  • Avoid Kenny Golladay as the Titans performed well this WRs lined up out wide last year and he will likely be matched up with Kristian Fulton. Fulton ranking third among qualified cornerbacks in coverage success rate in 2021 as a sophomore. Couple the tough matchup with the fact that everything out of training camp/preseason has been extraordinarily negative and I would stray away from Golladay until we see some life from him.
  • Kadarius Toney is going to be good this season but he draws a tough slot matchup in Elijah Molden here. Molden allowed just a 47.4% completion rate, third best among defenders with at least 200 slot snaps in 2021, as a rookie. That being said TEN did rank 30th in DVOA allowed to slot WRs in 2021 so Toney should be able to find some succss here. TEN also ranked 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed in 2021.
  • TE Daniel Bellinger is being priced at the minimum ($2500) on DK and he could find some success if they choose to try and cover him with LBs. He has virtually no competition for TE1 snaps as Ricky Seals-Jones has been placed on Injured Reserve following a toe injury.

Chiefs @ Cardinals (+3.5, 53.5)

  • Patrick Mahomes is the highest priced QB on the slate at $7700 and for good reason. This Cardinals secondary is god awful outside of Budda Baker. The CB trio of Antonio Hamilton, Byron Murphy, and Marco Wilson is a bottom-5 unit in the NFL. All 3 graded below the 50th percentile of CBs last year. Marco Wilson was 109th of 116 qualified corners in coverage grade. Another thing going for Mahomes is the fact that ARI ranked 29th in pressure rate despite blitzing at a top-5 rate. They will return JJ Watt from injury in 2022 but they also lost Chandler Jones in the offseason. Mahomes should have all day to throw the ball behind his elite OL.
  • Kyler Murray should also have success here against a Chiefs defense that ranked 23rd in pass DVOA and lost their 2 best secondary pieces in the offseason in S Tyrann Matthieu and CB Charvarius Ward. KC ranked 7th in pressure rate last year but finished 28th in adjusted sack rate so they should see some positive regression there. KC will be starting rookie CB Trent Mcduffie and S Justin Reid to replace these two. Reid graded out as the 88th out of 93 qualified safeties in coverage in 2021. Kyler Murray should perform well here in what projects to be a shootout with the highest total of the week 1 slate.
  • Marquise Brown is a nice high upside DFS target but he is priced accurately as the WR12 with a salary of $6200. Brown is an elite deep threat and Murray has been the best deep-ball thrower in the NFL since he came into the league. Couple that with the relative weakness of the Chiefs secondary and the lack of target competition for Brown, and Hollywood is a good bet to reel in a couple deep-balls in this game.
  • AJ Green should theoretically see more targets with Hopkins out due to suspension but he is not a player I will be targeting in DFS. At this point in his career it is clear that he lacks the explosive upside necessary to be productive in the DFS format.
  • Rondale Moore is actually slightly undervalued to begin the season as he is priced outside the top-70 WRs at just $4000 on DK for week 1. In 2021, Moore lined up in the slot on 66.5% of his sampled snaps and was in the backfield on 18.2%. Moore obviously struggled in year-1 and wasn’t asked to do much in terms of actual WR route-running, but I think he still demonstrated that he is an explosive runner as he went down on first contact on just 36.7% of his plays. I think we see ARI use Moore as a legit-WR more with Hopkins out but even if they don’t I think that he can have success against this KC defense that struggled to defend screen passes last year. KC CB depth is still good but I think that the middle of the field is vulnerable as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay are not the best coverage LBs.
  • Zach Ertz averaged 9 targets per game in the 7 games that Hopkins missed in 2021. Ertz is not nearly as explosive athletically as he used to be but he still averaged 52 receiving yards per game last season and actually lead the team in target share with a 24% target share when Hopkins was out. It seems like Kyler likes to target him a lot and as previously mentioned the middle of this KC defense may be more vulnerable this year following the departure of Matthieu. KC ranked 17th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021.
  • Zooming out the Cardinals pass-catchers should get a general boost in potential targets due to the reality that this game will likely be a shoot-out with the highest total on the Week 1 slate and Mahomes going against this god-awful CB unit. This is reflected in team totals as well as the chiefs have the largest team total on the week 1 slate at 28.5.
  • Focusing on the KC pass-catchers I may actually fade Travis Kelce in week 1. The cardinals ranked 2nd in DVOA defense against TEs and top-10 in explosive play rate allowed to TEs in 2021. ARI is weak at corner but between Isaiah Simmons, Budda Baker, and Jalen Thompson they have done a good job defending TEs. Kelce is priced as the TE2 on DK at $6800 but I don’t think this is the week to invest in a massive game from him considering where the strength of the AZ defense is.
  • For the other KC pass-catchers I would avoid MVS and the guys more likely to line up outside and instead target Juju-Smith or Sky Moore. Smith-Schuster should be a great fit in KC as he struggles massively against man/press-coverage (bottom 10th percentile success rate vs both) and is very good at winning against zone coverage (83rd percentile success rate). We know that teams basically refuse to play man coverage against Mahomes and we also know the Cardinals ranked 20th in man coverage rate and 20th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021. All of this sets up to create a nice environment for Juju to succeed against ARI.

** Update: CB Antonio Hamilton is out for the Cardinals so you can further boost Mahomes and the KC pass-catchers.

Packers @ Vikings (+1.5, 48)

  • Avoid Kirk Cousins vs this elite Packers secondary. Cousins will have a much better season under HC O’connells 11 personnel system but vs the Packers team he lacks the upside we are looking for in DFS formats. Another thing working against Cousins here is the Packers extremely methodical pace. The Packers have ranked 31st in neutral game script pace in all 3 years of the Lafleur era.
  • Aaron Rodgers has finished as a QB1 the past two seasons and won MVP both years but I would not play him here vs this Vikings team in what projects to be a slower-paced game. There are too many uncertainties in the Packers WR room to expect Rodgers to have an elite 25-30 point performance here in Week 1.
  • Dalvin Cook should be able to produce against a Packers front-7 that finished 2021 ranking 29th in explosive run rate allowed. The Packers also struggled against RBs in the pass game ranking 23rd in DVOA allowed to RBs in 2021.
  • Aaron Jones is a strong play in Week 1 as he gets to face a Vikings defensive front that finished 2021 ranked dead-last in adjusted line yards. The Packers OL ranked 3rd in ALY and now returns legendary LT David Bakhtiari. Jones also has the receiving upside we are looking for as he ranked 12th in receptions per game among RBs in 2021. Jones should be featured heavily in the pass game due to the departure of Davante Adams. Jones has averaged 55.4 receiving yards per game in the games he has played without Adams over the past 3 years. The only thing threatening Jones is the potential emergence of Quadzilla RB AJ Dillon to take away from his workload.
  • Justin Jefferson is going to have a monster year in this O’connell/Mcvay system but this will be a difficult Week 1 matchup for him. The Packers ranked 2nd, 4th, and 7th in DVOA allowed to WRs lined up out wide, slot, and #1 WRs respectively. Keep in mind that this secondary was starting rookie CB Eric Stokes and was without CB Jaire Alexander for the 2nd half of the season. Between these two, nickelback Rasul Douglas, and safeties Savage and Amos this is easily a top-3 secondary in the NFL entering 2022. It must be mentioned that Jefferson torched this secondary for 8 receptions, 169 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns in last year’s matchup when the Packers were missing Jaire Alexander. You can never expect a WR of Jefferson’s caliber to get completely locked down but he is priced as the WR2 on DK at $7800 and this won’t be the week I am confidently inserting him into all my lineups.
  • Adam Thielen is highly dependent on touchdowns in order to produce in fantasy. He is coming off a career low 10.8 yards per reception. Similar to Jefferson, the Packers are simply not the defense I want to be targeting WRs against this season.
  • Irv Smith Jr. is a very interesting high-upside play as the Packers ranked were horrible against TEs in 2021, ranking bottom-5 in DVOA allowed to TEs. Smith was a trendy breakout candidate heading into 2021 before he got injured and he should see the field a lot as the #1 TE in 11 personnel. The Packers do have good coverage LBs in Quay Walker and Devondre Campbell so there is a chance that they improve on their rankings against TEs in 2022.
  • Packers WR room is obviously a huge question mark in general but if I had to pick someone to target in Week 1 it would be Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb due to their developed chemistry with Rodgers. Lazard in particular is interesting as he often lines up in the slot (36.3% of his snaps) and will likely draw the Chandon Sullivan matchup there as Sullivan is MIN’s nickelback. Lazard should have the advantage here as Sullivan was just 82nd in coverage grade out of 115 qualified corners in 2021. Lazard also has a huge size advantage coming in at 6’5 225 vs Sullivan who is just 5’11.

Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5, 52.5)

  • Justin Herbert put up over 20 points in each matchup last year vs the Raiders (21.7 and 27.4). The Raiders upgraded at edge with the addition of Chandler Jones but the only way Herbert doesn’t perform here is if the right side of the Chargers OL fails to hold up.
  • Derek Carr didn’t perform well in either game vs the Chargers in 2021. Carr put up 14.4 points and 15.34 vs LAC. Obviously Carr gets a major WR upgrade in Adams but his OL has deteriorated since 2021. Outside of LT Kolton Miller and C Andre James the Raiders will be starting 0 OL with an above-average pass-block grade. Carr was 28th in PFF grade under pressure, but 10th with a clean pocket. LAC has upgraded their defense and should be able to generate pressure on Carr consistently but the Raiders will have an edge with Adams lined up out wide. CB JC Jackson is out for this game and Adams should be able to consistently win vs whoever the Chargers line up against him. I would sit Carr in most leagues but an Adams/Carr stack does make sense in DFS lineups.
  • Davante Adams is priced as the WR1 for week 1 and for good reason. As mentioned above he will not have to face JC Jackson in week 1 and the Chargers should force the Raiders into a pass-heavy game script. This game has the 2nd highest total on the slate and there is little reason to expect Adams to get shut-down here. Yes, the Raiders OL may allow a ton of pressure on Carr but Adams is elite at winning quickly on short-routes so Carr should be able to find Adams despite the pressure.
  • Keenan Allen actually struggled in this matchup last year posting games of 10.6 and 5.4 vs the Raiders. This makes some sense as slot corner Nate Hobbs was the one productive corner for the Raiders in 2021. Hobbs was 5th in coverage grade in the entire NFL and 8th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap amongst slot CBs. Another thing that likely hurt Allen in last year’s matchups was the high-rate of cover-3/zone the Raiders played in Gus Bradley’s system. The Raiders at in cover 3 last year because they couldn’t cover anyone in man; they ranked dead last in yards per attempt allowed (10.4) while in man coverage. This may change in 2022 under new DC Patrick Graham as the Raiders have now added some decent man coverage corners in Rock Ya-Sin/Anthony Averett. This would benefit Allen as he ranked 79th percentile in success rate vs man coverage and just 37th percentile vs zone coverage in 2021. I wouldn’t worry too much about Allen’s struggles vs Raiders last year and he should have verry little competition for targets as the Chargers added virtually no one outside year-over-year.
  • Mike Williams put up 2.1 points and 17.4 vs LV in 2021. Like Keenan, Mike should have little competition for targets once again in 2022, but unlike Keenan a potential shift to more man coverage would likely hurt Williams efficiency as he ranked just 24th percentile n success rate vs man in 2021. His success rate vs zone was much better ranking 60th percentile.
  • Austin Ekeler put up 23.9 and 26.5 points vs LV in 2021. I would damper expectations on his receiving success a little bit here as LV did add a solid coverage LB in Jayon Brown in the offseason. The Raiders defense was top-10 in run DVOA and 11th in explosive run rate but likely got worse in the run defense department with the additions of Jones and Brown. Chandler Jones was graded 116th of 121 edge defenders in run defense grade in 2021 and Jayon Brown posted an abominable 42.5 run defense grade with the Titans. Ekeler may not have quite as much receiving upside but he should be able to dominate on the ground and is correctly priced as the RB4 at $8,200.
  • Josh Jacobs is a player I would fade in Week 1 considering how awful his OL projects to be and the massive improvement in the LV front-7. He is priced as the RB13 on DK at $6300 and I’m not sure why. This is not the same porous Chargers run defense from 2021 and they were already good at covering RBs in coverage. Add-in the potential for some workload share with rookie Zamir White or Kenyan Drake and I can’t really see Jacobs exceeding his price unless he runs into some touchdown luck.
  • Hunter Renfrow posted solid games of 10.5 and 12.8 vs LAC last year but I would anticipate a drop in production due to the additional target competition with Adams. Another thing working against Renfrow here is the Chargers acquisition of solid slot CB Bryce Callahan in the offseason. Callahan was 37th in coverage grade in 2021. One thing going for Renfrow is the potential for more zone coverage from the Chargers due to the JC Jackson injury. Renfrow is elite at beating zone coverage ranking 77th percentile in success rate vs zone in 2021.
  • Darren Waller put up 15 points in week 4 but only 4.2 in week 18. The Chargers struggled against TEs in 2021 ranking 23rd in DVOA allowed to TEs. LAC added Van Noy in offseason who ranked top-5 in coverage grade in 2021. They also signed Derwin James to an extension. Carr should be passing the ball often in this game but I would prefer to target Adams or Renfrow over Waller here.
  • Gerald Everett is priced as the TE13 on DK at $3800 but I think we can see him breakout this year in this Chargers offense. The Raiders struggled to cover Jared Cook last year and struggled against TEs in general finishing 25th in DVOA allowed to TEs in 2021. Cook put up 12 and 19 points vs the Raiders last year and he was nowhere near as explosive as Everett. Everett is one of my favorite week 1 plays at TE.

Bucs @ Cowboys (+2.5, 51)

  • Expectations for Tom Brady should be tampered a little bit given the massive talent loss at WR and the interior OL injury issues. The Cowboys were elite against outside WRs in 2021 but are likely due for some regression after posting a historic number of turnovers in 2021. That being said I would avoid Brady in week 1 as I don’t expect this to be the high scoring affair that last year’s week 1 matchup vs the Cowboys was. DAL lost Randy Gregory but still have Parsons and Lawrence who were both top-10 in pressure rate in 2021.
  • Dak Prescott is also dealing with his own OL issues after losing T Tyron Smith to injury. The Cowboys also experienced a massive talent deterioration at WR, losing Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson in the offseason. They’ll be rolling out a trio of Lam, rookie Jalen Tolbert, and Noah Brown at WR. Don’t expect Prescott to replicate the 27.44 points he put up vs this Bucs defense last year.
  • Mike Evans won’t have much competition but draws a relatively tough matchup against CB Trevon Diggs and this Cowboys defense. DAL ranked #1 in DVOA allowed to WRs lined up out wide in 2021 and #1 WRs. Evans put up just 24 receiving yards on 3 receptions in this matchup last year. Despite all of that you can’t count him out as this is still very much a boom or bust DAL defense that is due for regression. DAL ranked 26th in explosive pass rate allowed in 2021.
  • Like Evans, Ceedee Lamb won’t have much target competition early on but will likely be keyed on by a Bucs defense that has a number of elite coverage guys at multiple levels. Lamb did put up 23.4 fantasy points vs this Bucs defense in week 1 last year.
  • Russell Gage is going to surprise people in week 1. Gage is being slept on massively by the football world due to the acquisition of Julio Jones. The Julio signing catches more headlines and eyeballs due to his pedigree but when comparing the two receivers last year its clear who is the better/more explosive receiver at this point in their careers. Gage ranked above 60th percentile in success rate vs man and press coverage in 2021 and he has the versatility to line up all over the field. Compare that to Julio who ranked in the 6th percentile vs man coverage in 2021 and it is clear who you want to be starting against a DAL team that ranked top-5 in man coverage usage in 2021. Start Gage in Week 1.
  • Ezekiel Elliot went for 5.9 points in week 1 last year and I wouldn’t expect him to massively exceed that output unless he runs into touchdown luck at the goal line. DAL OL is much worse and TB can commit more defenders to the box due to the lack of talent at receiving positions. The clamor for Tony Pollard who has been more efficient in every metric also grows louder every year.
  • Leonard Fournette put up 10.9 points vs DAL in 2021, mostly due to his 5 receptions for 27 yards. DAL finished the year ranked #1 in the entire league at defending RBs by DVOA. Fournette shouldn’t have much competition for carries early in the season but there is a chance that rookie RB Rachaad White cuts into his 3rd down work.

Broncos @ Seahawks (+6.5, 45)

  • Russell Wilson should have no trouble carving up this Seahawks defense that has virtually 0 reputable coverage CBs. They still have Quandre Diggs and Adams but Adams isn’t good in coverage anyway. SEA was 30th in the league in success rate allowed to QBs per dropback, and they lost their best CB DJ Reed in the offseason.
  • Guys like KJ Hamler, Albert O, and Ja’vonte Williams should benefit against a SEA defense that played zone at the highest rate in the NFL last year. 86% of passes against Seattle were marked short in the official play-by-play, the most in the league.
  • Jerry Jeudy is another guy who would stand to benefit from continued high rates of zone by Seattle. Jeudy ranked 51st percentile in success rate vs zone coverage while Sutton was slightly lower at the 36th percentile.
  • Javonte Williams is going up against a SEA defense that ranked 1st in explosive run rate and top-10 in rush DVOA in 2021 but this is not the same front-7 at all. SEA has lost a number of key contributors including MLB Bobby Wagner. Don’t have any qualms about plugging Williams into your lineups unless you believe the reports about Melvin Gordon splitting many carries with him. According to Football Outsiders, “Seattle surrendered 1,105 receiving yards to running backs, second most in our database behind the 1,152 given up by the 2010 Titans”. Williams is a capable pass-catcher and should have no issue producing as a receiver in Week 1 and should have a favorable game script that puts him near 20-25 carries.
  • Rashaad Penny figures to be in some sort of committee with rookie RB Kenneth Walker but he was the most explosive runner in the NFL in 2021 and came on strong at the end of the season. The DEN defense ranked 10th in explosive run rate allowed in 2021 but just 21st in Run DVOA in 2021. The run defense should be improved with the return of Chubb and the additions of Randy Gregor and ILB Alex Singleton. Another thing working against Penny is the deterioration of his OL. This OL was already ranked dead-last in pressure rate allowed in 2021 and lost multiple starters. They added LT Charles Cross but he projects to be a better pass-blocker than run blocker. Ultimately, this is a weak/inexperienced OL and the game script will likely force SEA to become pass-heavy in the 2nd half. I don’t think Penny is a great option in Week 1.
  • DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were both elite in at separating in 202. Both guys finished top-15 in PFF receiving grade and are legit studs but have been seriously downgraded following the Russell Wilson trade. Denver played the 2nd highest rate of man coverage in the NFL last year but that was under Vic Fangio. Their new DC is coming over from an LAR system that almost never plays man coverage and it will be interesting to see how this affects DEN’s scheme. If DEN plays more zone it would stand to benefit Lockett as he is the far more efficient receiver of the two against zone coverage. Even if DEN sticks with high rates of man coverage you would expect Metcalf to draw the Surtain matchup here. This is a tough game to evaluate for both of these receivers as it is highly likely that SEA runs the ball at high rates and Geno Smith is under pressure often.
  • Geno Smith is not a play outside of Captain Mode slates if you want to build contrarian stacks. Too much emphasis on running the ball to have faith Geno will get the necessary volume to produce a QB1 scoring week.
  • Russ normally doesn’t target his TEs but Albert O could have a big week here against this horiffic SEA LB corps and secondary.